USD Bulls Must Be Patient

Economic indicators out of the U.S over the past few months have surprised to the downside on a number of occasions bringing into question Q1 growth prospects.

As highlighted below we can see there have been 4 months of below expectation expansion on the ISM Manufacturing PMI release. Although we’re yet to see a reading below 50.0 that indicates contraction, we are trending lower and in that direction. This is a genuine reason for concern.

In the midst of falling commodity prices, and specifically oil, it is no real surprise to see inflationary data in the U.S in negative territory. However, this does give the Federal Reserve more flexibility when it comes to the much talked about interest-rate hike. If prices were above the target level deemed acceptable in the Fed’s mandate there would be less of a debate about when the central bank would be tightening monetary policy.

A real concern is that the falling oil prices that were likened to a ‘tax cut’ by U.S officials has not been represented in the U.S Consumer. Retail Sales in 2015 have consistently come out negatively. The worry is that U.S consumers are supposed to have more disposable income as they are saving money at the pump, yet spending by consumers is in decline.

This brings into play the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. There has been a significant drop-off in this sentiment survey since the lofty high of 98.2 in January. The latest report showed a reading of 91.2 in March after 93.6 in Feb. Yes these are positive, again we’re seeing softness.

The real question is how this will impact on U.S growth prospects. A recent report suggests U.S GDP is projecting growth of 1.2% in Q1.

So what does this mean for our market outlook? We have to take into consideration the harsh winter being experienced across the pond, plus the disruption on the West Ports was mentioned no less than 5 times in the “What Respondents are saying” section of the latest ISM Manufacturing report.

If we take into account both the harsh weather conditions and the West Port disruptions are temporary in nature, then we can expect a rebound in U.S economic data as we head into spring and then Q2. The U.S economy still has the benefit of low funding costs and a healthy appetite for lending by U.S banks. This is a good sign for longer-term growth prospects.

Let’s also remember this time last year when another cold winter severely disrupted U.S growth. This resulted in a sell-off in USD throughout Feb and April. EUR/USD rallied from 1.3480 to 1.4000 in this period. However, after the blip in the U.S economy had passed, the market began flooding into USD again.

Currently the circumstances are very similar in terms of longer term fundamental outlook. The divergence in growth and monetary policy remains in place as the ECB embarks on QE whilst the FED considers a rate hike. That said, the noticeable difference this year is the positioning of the market. The softness in data this year come after a monumental USD rally across the board. With the long USD trade overcrowded we would not be surprised to see a more pronounced USD pullback before our longer term bullish dollar bias resumes.

We still favour USD strength across the board, and especially favour the greenback to outperform the AUD as detailed in my previous report.

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Capital Markets In The Week Ahead

The events of the past week will continue to reverberate in the capital markets in the week ahead. The key development was the market’s ultra-dovish read of the Federal Reserve. Although the dollar recouped the lion’s share of the knee-jerk losses, the debt markets have not returned to status quo ante.

Many, if not most, market participants fail to appreciate our heuristic insight into the Federal Reserve: Policy emanates from the leadership of the Federal Reserve: Yellen, Stanley Fischer, and Dudley. We argue that the key organ of the leadership is the FOMC statement. Other communication tools including the dot-plots and the FOMC minutes have a higher ratio of noise to signal.

The FOMC statement dropped the word patience, completing the transition from a date-approach to forward guidance to a data-driven approach. Fearing that the markets would conclude that a hike was imminent, the statement offset the seemingly hawkish development with an acknowledgement that the economic growth had moderated, and exports had slowed. Other than that, the FOMC statement was little changed from January.

Participants emphasized the dot-plots and in particular, the dramatic reduction in the anticipated path of the Fed funds target. We want to emphasize three points here. First, our understanding is that many Fed officials see the dot-plots as a largely failed experiment and would like to jettison them. However, this is easier said than done. Yellen herself has played down their importance.

Second, the past dot-plots exposed a large gap between them and market expectations reflected in OIS, Fed funds futures, and Eurodollar futures. It remained an open question how that gap was going to close. The evolution of the dot-plots last week showed Fed officials adjusted their views dramatically and brought them more in line with the market's expectations. The previous configuration of dot plots did not persuade the market of a hawkish tilt. We suspect that markets exaggerated the dovish signal in the dot plots.

Third, Yellen reiterated that the dot-plots are a function of individual forecasts. Of the skills necessary to become a regional Fed president, a robust ability to forecast the economy is not particularly salient. In December, there were a couple of regional Fed presidents that anticipated (i.e. wanted) the Fed to hike rates in March-April.

What has been lost on many observers is the change in personnel. Charles Plosser, the outspoken hawk who led the Philadelphia Fed, retired on March 1. His successor, Patrick Harker, a director of the Philadelphia Fed for the past three years, will assume the post as of July 1. He is perceived to be somewhat less hawkish and more in line with the Fed's leadership. At the March FOMC meeting (and at the June meeting as well) First Vice President D. Blake Prichard will temporarily take on the duties.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, another outspoken hawk, stepped down after last week's FOMC meeting. His successor has not been named. The First Vice President of the Dallas Fed, Helen Holcomb will serve in the interim until a successor is named. Previously Plosser and Fisher had advocated a hike in March/April. This is obviously not going to happen, and the forecasts had to be adjusted accordingly.

The fact that Q1 growth is tracking much lower than officials expected requires an adjustment to the forecasts for the entire year. This was the case last year as well after it become clear that the economy contracted in Q1. Yellen took great pains to stress that even with the downgrade of the Fed’s growth forecasts, it continues to expect growth to be above trend.

There is also much confusion about the Fed’s view of the dollar. Contrary to what some had expected, there was no mention of the dollar in the FOMC statement itself. Most of Yellen’s remarks about the dollar during the press conference were not instigated by the Chair, but by inquiring reporters, many of whom later wrote stories about the increased importance of the dollar in setting Fed policy.

Yellen accepted that the rise in the dollar was one of the factors that was slowing exports. Reporters did not press further: If the dollar was one of the factors, what were the others? If they had, we suspect Yellen would have explained that the IMF and World Bank had cut their forecasts for world growth. We think that the data bears out our contention that the best thing for US exports is stronger world growth.

Yellen also noted that the strength of the dollar was dampening inflation through import prices. Many participants completely ignored the rest of her comments about this, and in particular that this was a transitory development. Few reports covering the Fed thought it worth mentioning that Yellen acknowledged that the dollar’s appreciation was partly a reflection of the strength of the US economy.

We suggest that Yellen’s testimony before Congress in late February sheds light on Fed’s thinking. She indicated that the dampening impact of the rise of the dollar is broadly offset by the fall in oil prices. The claim that Yellen has waded into the so-called currencies wars is far from the mark. Indeed, we expect that the dollar will be stronger, not weaker, when the Fed raises interest rates. Vice Chairman Fischer’s speech to the Economics Club in New York on March 23 should be closely monitored. He is the first of the Fed’s leadership to speak since the FOMC meeting.

The US economy contracted in Q1 '14, and yet the Fed continued to taper. It stayed on course. Similarly, Q1 '15 growth is set to be disappointingly weak. Part of this is weather-related. Part of this is a function of the labor dispute in the West Coast ports. US consumption surged in Q4 (more than 4% annualized rate) and appeared to be pulling back in Q1.

We anticipate better economic data will be forthcoming in the months ahead. Next week’s economic data may be constructive (a tick up in CPI, an upward revision in Q4 GDP), but pales in comparison to the employment data in early April. In this context, we find Yellen’s comment, which was obscured by the doves' cry that rates are likely to rise before earnings growth accelerates, is particularly significant.

The modest uptick in euro area activity and in lending conditions we identified prior to the launch of the ECB’s sovereign bond buying program remains intact. The flash PMI and money supply reports will likely confirm this. The composite is expected to edge up from February 53.3 reading. Eurozone data has consistently surprised the market here in Q1, and we expect market expectations are being adjusted. Growth here in Q1 is likely 1.5%-1.75% at an annualized rate.

Financial conditions are also improving. Money supply growth is accelerating. Last February it was rising at an anemic 1.3% year-over-year pace. When reported on 26 March, the pace likely have accelerated to 4.3% from 4.1% in January (best in six years). Moreover, and with implications for the Targeted Long-Term Repo Operation (TLTRO), private sector lending is improving. After contracting for 2 ½ years, lending posted positive readings in December and January, and will likely extend for a third month.

Core banks appeared to participate more in the first two opportunities to tap the TLTRO facility last September (82.6 bln euros) and December (130 bln euros). However, banks in the periphery seemed to be more active participants in last week’s operation. Italian banks were thought to have taken down nearly a third of the 97.8 bln euros borrowed under the TLTRO offering. The overall take-down was at the high end of expectations.

There were two elections in the eurozone this weekend that may not have much immediate market impact, but will feed investors' anxiety about the political outlook. Spain's Andalusia holds a regional election. It is a stronghold for the Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) but Podemos can deny it an outright majority. France holds the first round of local elections and a strong showing by the National Front is expected. It has a candidate running in nearly every constituency, more than the main two parties (UMP and Socialists). The results will be known before the markets open on Monday.

The UK reports February inflation and retail sales. The year-over-year CPI is expected to fall closer to zero. The low CPI reading will follow the disappointing average earnings data and will reinforce the dovish tone of BOE Governor Carney and BOE Economist Haldine. The implied yield of the June 2016 short-sterling futures contract has fallen by more than 30 bp in the past two weeks to 90 bp as the pendulum of investor expectations pushes out a UK rate hike further. A constructive retail sales report (consensus forecast 0.4% after -0.3% in January) is unlikely to reverse this recent development.

There is a full slate of economic reports from Japan. These includes the preliminary March PMI, February unemployment, CPI and retail sales. On balance, the weak economic recovery that began in Q4 '14 is carrying over into the start of this year. Of note, several of the large auto companies are raising base wages and this will likely underpin overall household spending going forward. Retail sales are also expected to have recovered from the 1.9% decline in January (consensus forecast is for a 0.9% increase in February.

However, despite the aggressive easing of Japanese monetary policy, price pressures have not been rekindled. The core rate, which excludes fresh food, is expected to ease to 2.1% from 2.2%. When last April’s sales tax is excluded, as the BOJ does for its target, consumer prices are essentially flat on a year-over-year basis. The BOJ's Kuroda recently warned the market that CPI may be around zero for the next few months. He seems in no immediate hurry to expand the BOJ’s asset purchase.

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Iran rejects 'bullying' as West stresses unity in nuclear talks

LONDON (My.Princes) - Iran's top leader voiced mistrust on Saturday of U.S. efforts to reach a nuclear deal, even as Washington and its allies spoke of real progress and urged Tehran to take "difficult decisions".

With just 10 days remaining until an end-of-March deadline for a framework agreement, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced U.S. "bullying" in the negotiations and repeated Tehran's denial that it was seeking to develop a nuclear weapon.

After week-long talks with Iran in Switzerland, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry flew to London to confer with his counterparts from Britain, France and Germany on prospects for resolving the dispute, which goes back more than a decade and has threatened at times to unleash a new war in the Middle East.

In a joint statement, the foreign ministers said they agreed that "substantial progress" had been made with Iran in key areas, but some important issues remained outstanding.

"Now is the time for Iran, in particular, to take difficult decisions," they said.

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond told reporters the Western ministers were all in agreement that "we will not do a bad deal that does not meet our red lines".

Together with China and Russia, the four countries are trying to reach a deal with Tehran that would restrict the most sensitive aspects of Iran's atomic program in return for an easing of international sanctions.

U.S. ally Israel views Iran's nuclear activities as an existential threat, despite Tehran's strenuous denials that it wants to acquire nuclear weapons.

U.S. President Barack Obama said in an interview with the Huffington Post that Iran had not yet made the necessary concessions for a deal to get completed.

"What is going to have an effect on whether we get a deal done is, number one: is Iran prepared to show, to prove to the world, that it is not developing a nuclear weapon, and can we verify that in an intrusive, consistent way?" Obama said.

"And frankly, they have not yet made the kind of concessions that are I think going to be needed for a final deal to get done. But they have moved, and so there's the possibility," Obama added in the interview conducted on Friday and published on Saturday.

DURABLE SOLUTION

After 2-1/2 hours of talks in London, the Western ministers said in their joint statement: "Any solution must be comprehensive, durable and verifiable. None of our countries can subscribe to a deal that does not meet these terms."

The stress on unity seemed designed to counter the impression of a split between Washington and Paris.

U.S. officials have privately bristled at France's outspoken criticism of the negotiating process and its demands for more stringent restrictions on the Iranians. Officials have expressed concerns that the French might block a deal at the United Nations.

France's envoy to Washington, Gerard Araud, has been especially vocal, tweeting that setting a March 31 deadline for a framework deal was "a bad tactic" and "counterproductive". The target date for a full agreement is June 30.

The full six-power group is due to resume negotiations with Iran next week in Lausanne, Switzerland.

The West suspects Iran of seeking the ability to produce atomic weapons and the United Nations has imposed stringent economic sanctions on Tehran. Iran says its program is intended only for peaceful purposes, such as medical technology and nuclear energy, and wants the swift lifting of sanctions.

Iran's Khamenei, who has the last word on all matters of state, reiterated in a speech that Tehran would not be pressured into giving in to Western demands.

"What the Iranian people don't want is imposition and bullying from America," he said, at one point repeating the phrase "Death to America" after it was shouted from the crowd.

He accused Washington of seeking to foment instability in the Middle East.

"They raise the issue of an atomic bomb. They know themselves that we are not pursuing nuclear weapons. But they just use that as an excuse to pressure the Iranian people."

He criticized "arrogant" Western countries for what he said was their role in bringing about a halving of world oil prices that has squeezed Iran's economy.

"They insist on putting pressure on our dear people's economy. What's their goal? Their goal is to put the people against the system," he said.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had struck a more positive note earlier, saying there was "nothing that cannot be resolved".

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Obama says it is now 'hard to find a path'

WASHINGTON (My.Princes) - In a fresh rebuke to Benjamin Netanyahu, President Barack Obama said the Israeli leader's pre-election disavowal of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict makes it "hard to find a path" toward serious negotiations to resolve the issue.

In an interview with the Huffington Post, Obama also scolded Netanyahu over his remarks about Arab Israelis voting, making clear that the deep rift in relations between Israel and the United States, its most important ally, is not ending anytime soon.

In the interview, conducted on Friday and published on Saturday, Obama described his Thursday phone call with Netanyahu, two days after the Israeli leader was re-elected.

"I did indicate to him that we continue to believe that a two-state solution is the only way for the long-term security of Israel, if it wants to stay both a Jewish state and democratic," Obama said, in his first public comments on the issue.

"And I indicated to him that given his statements prior to the election, it is going to be hard to find a path where people are seriously believing that negotiations are possible."

The worst crisis in decades in U.S.-Israeli relations was worsened by Netanyahu's declaration just before Tuesday's election that there would be no Palestinian state on his watch. Netanyahu sought on Thursday to backtrack from that.

"Well, we take him at his word when he said that it wouldn't happen during his prime ministership, and so that's why we've got to evaluate what other options are available to make sure that we don't see a chaotic situation in the region," said Obama, whose administration sponsored failed talks aimed at creating a Palestinian state that would exist peacefully side-by-side with Israel.

The White House had said after Obama's call on Thursday that the president had told Netanyahu Washington would "reassess" its options on U.S.-Israel relations and Middle East diplomacy.

In the interview, Obama also expressed dismay over Netanyahu's Election Day warning to his supporters about Arab Israeli voters going to the polls "in droves."

"We indicated that that kind of rhetoric was contrary to what is the best of Israel's traditions, that although Israel was founded based on the historic Jewish homeland and the need to have a Jewish homeland, Israeli democracy has been premised on everybody in the country being treated equally and fairly," Obama said.

Obama underscored his support for Israel's security, saying he would make sure that military and intelligence cooperation continues in order to keep the Israeli people safe.

"But we are going to continue to insist that, from our point of view, the status quo is unsustainable. And that while taking into complete account Israel's security, we can't just in perpetuity maintain the status quo, expand settlements. That's not a recipe for stability in the region," Obama said, referring to the current state of affairs with the Palestinians.

The United States provides $3 billion in military aid annually.

Netanyahu's tense relations with Obama have been strained over U.S. efforts to reach an international agreement with Iran to curb Tehran's nuclear program. Ties worsened when Netanyahu accepted a Republican invitation to speak to the U.S. Congress two weeks before the Israeli election to criticize Obama's quest for such a deal. Democrats assailed the speech as an insult to the presidency and a breach of protocol.

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The Fed dropped a reference to being "patient"

Euro (Princes)-- The dollar pushed broadly lower against a basket of other major currencies on Friday, as risk sentiment improved amid fresh hopes for progress on the Greek debt front, while the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement continued to weigh on the greenback.

The dollar remained fragile after the Fed indicated on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth has moderated and that interest rates will rise at a slower pace than previously forecast.

The Fed dropped a reference to being "patient" on the timing of rate hikes, but added that the change in its forward guidance did not mean it has decided on the timing for an initial rate increase.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.91% to 98.54.

The euro extended earlier gains, with EUR/USD up 1.96% to 1.0850.

The single currency found support after the European Commission said it made $2 billion of unused funds available to Greece to help the country avert a cash crunch.

The announcement came after Greek authorities said they were moving towards meeting the requirements of international creditors on a more detailed reform plan in order to secure the additional bailout funds required to prevent the country's bankruptcy.

European Union officials were set to continue discussions on the Greek bailout throughout the day.

The pound also gained ground, with GBP/USD advancing 0.83% to 1.4876.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics earlier reported that public sector net borrowing rose by £6.22 billion in February, less than the expected increase of £7.70 billion. January's figure was revised to a £8.93 billion drop from a previously estimated decline of £9.41 billion.

Elsewhere, the dollar turned lower against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY easing 0.09% to 120.70 and with USD/CHF tumbling 1.24% to 0.9778.

The minutes of the Bank of Japan's most recent policy meeting earlier showed that government dropped their calls to hit the bank's inflation target "at the earliest date possible," signaling to the BoJ that it shouldn't rush in accelerating inflation through expanding stimulus measures further.

Meanwhile, the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars pushed broadly higher, with AUD/USD climbing 1.12% to 0.7736 and NZD/USD rallying 1.34% to 0.7514, while USD/CAD dropped 0.86% to 1.2607.

Statistics Canada said on Friday that retail sales dropped 1.7% in January, compared to expectations for a 0.7% fall, while core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, declined 1.8% in January, exceeding the expected 0.4% slip.

In a separate report, Statistics Canada said that consumer prices rose 0.9% last month, more than the expected 0.7% increase, while core consumer prices, which exclude the eight most volatile items, advanced 0.6% in February, compared to expectations for a 0.5% rise.

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EU tells Greece time, patience running out

BRUSSELS/BERLIN (Princes) - Euro zone leaders told Greece on Thursday its leftist-led government must implement agreed reforms to avert a looming cash crunch that could force it out of the single currency.

Greece has been kept from bankruptcy by two international bailouts but now risks running out of money within weeks if it does not receive more funds. Greek banks reported the largest deposit withdrawals in a month, a sign savers are worried about the outlook for the country's finances and institutions.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras requested a meeting with the leaders of Germany, France and the main EU institutions on the sidelines of a European Union summit to press for Athens to receive short-term funds to keep itself afloat.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel doused any expectation of a deal at the late-night session, saying decisions were up to the Eurogroup of finance ministers of the 19-nation euro area.

"I want to say: don't expect a solution, don't expect a breakthrough. It's not the right setting," she told reporters on arrival at the summit. "Decisions are made in the Eurogroup and that's how it will remain."

French President Francois Hollande said the message to Tsipras would be that all sides must stick to their commitments.

The chairman of euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, told reporters they would merely "take stock of the progress being made, which seems to be small...

"Time is ticking away, so we don't have a lot of time," he said. "So we have really got to get to work."

A person familiar with ECB thinking said European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would make clear the bank would not lift its limit on Greek short-term debt issuance, which Greece's finance minister has said is "asphyxiating" his country.

"It's up to Greece to meet its commitments in order to get money from its creditors," said the person. "The ECB doesn't do bridge finance."

Tsipras did not respond to questions about his country's funding problems, saying only: "The EU needs more political initiatives that respect both democracy and its treaties so that we leave behind the crisis and move to growth."

A Greek official said Athens had enough cash to pay a final 350 million euro installment of a loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund on Friday.Merkel earlier told the German parliament in Berlin the crisis could only be resolved if Greece stuck to reform commitments it made when it agreed with the euro zone on a four-month extension of its bailout program.

A political meeting of a small group of leaders could not be used to circumvent the formal agreement Greece concluded on Feb. 20 with the Eurogroup, she told the lawmakers.

"There remains a very tough way ahead," Merkel said. Greece must understand that international aid brought with it an obligation "to reform its budget and work towards one day no longer needing help".

European Council President Donald Tusk, chairing the summit, said he arranged a side-meeting with Tsipras to take the heat out of exchanges around the table. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel said he would complain about the private session among a few players. "It's a bad method," he said. Luxembourg's Xavier Bettel said he would have liked to have been present.

Tusk met the Benelux leaders to defuse their irritation, promising that no decision would be taken behind their backs. He asked whether any leader wanted a full euro zone summit on Greece but no one took him on the offer, an aide said.

Two EU/IMF bailouts totaling 240 billion euros have kept Greece from bankruptcy since 2010 but its economy has shrunk by 25 percent, partly due to austerity measures imposed by the lenders. It risks running out of cash without more aid or permission to issue more short-term debt.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has been trying to build bridges between Tsipras and Greece's creditors. His exasperated tone suggested even Athens' friends are losing patience with its belligerent rhetoric and procrastination.

EU sources said Greece had refused to provide any update on public finances or reform plans in a conference call of senior euro zone officials on Tuesday and had denied EU, IMF and European Central Bank experts access to government buildings in Athens, insisting all meetings take place in a hotel.

The discussions had not gone beyond procedural issues of who would be allowed to talk to whom, the sources said.

Asked whether the experts had been kicked out, an EU official said: "The talks in Athens were paused yesterday. This is normal procedure and can be helpful to take stock. There is willingness to talk but the Greeks must deliver."

"LIQUIDITY PROBLEM"

Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis, in a television talk show early on Thursday, accused the creditors' team of exceeding their authority.

"The technical teams came to collect facts, but they then requested things which went beyond their jurisdiction. For example, they wanted to review the government as a whole, every ministry's program and the reforms," he told Alpha TV.

Dragasakis acknowledged Greece faced a liquidity problem and needed the cooperation of its European lenders to keep paying salaries, pensions and debt repayments: "We haven't received any (bailout) tranches since August 2014 but we have been meeting all of our obligations," he said. "This has its limits."

The ECB agreed late on Wednesday to raise the limit on emergency lending to Greek banks by 400 million euros to 69.8 billion, banking sources said. Bankers said savers withdrew about 300 million euros in deposits on Wednesday.

Greece has asked to receive some 1.9 billion euros in ECB profits on Greek bond holdings, which finance ministers have linked to progress in implementing the program. It also wants ECB permission to issue more short-term treasury bills, which only Greek banks are willing to buy.

Tsipras' Syriza party won a general election in January on a platform of scrapping the bailouts, ending austerity and refusing to cooperate with the "troika" of institutions -- EU, ECB and IMF -- supervising its rescue program.

The prime minister lambasted EU "technocrats" on Wednesday for demanding prior consultations on the cost of a "humanitarian bill" adopted by parliament to provide food stamps and free electricity to the poorest Greeks worst hit by austerity.

Athens has made no move in the month since the Brussels agreement to bring forward legislation to meet its commitments under the bailout agreement.

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Wall Street climbs on Nike

(Princes)-- U.S. stocks rose on Friday, lifted by results from Nike and another climb in biotechs, as investors assessed the impact of a stronger dollar on corporate earnings.

Dow component Nike (N:NKE) jumped 3.7 percent to $101.95 after it posted a quarterly profit that beat market estimates. The world's largest sportswear maker sold more higher margin shoes and apparel, but warned that the stronger dollar would take a toll on its current quarter.

"There is a tug-of-war going on between current valuations in our market and a lot of bad news being priced into a strong dollar, with no good news being priced into a strong dollar," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York.

"We are taking the multinationals out to the woodshed and not moving consumer names higher."

Biotechs were on track for their eighth straight advance, powered by a 6.6 percent climb in Biogen Idec (O:BIIB) to $466.07. The company said its experimental drug became the first Alzheimer's treatment to significantly slow cognitive decline and reduce brain plaque in patients with early and mild forms of the disease, according to a small study. The Nasdaq biotech index has gained 8 percent since March 10.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) rose 140 points, or 0.78 percent, to 18,099.03, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 14.17 points, or 0.68 percent, to 2,103.44 and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 34.90 points, or 0.7 percent, to 5,027.28.

The market may see heightened volatility heading into the close as a result of quadruple witching - the expiration of stock options, index options, index futures and single-stock futures.

Olive Garden owner Darden Restaurants (N:DRI) reported a quarterly profit above analysts' estimates due to cost-cutting and better-than-expected sales at its chains such as LongHorn Steakhouse and Yard House. Its shares climbed 3 percent to $66.80.

But Tiffany & Co. (N:TIF) shares lost 3.2 percent to $83.63 after the upscale jeweler reported quarterly sales fell for the first time in five years and are expected to decline further in the current quarter, hurt by the strong dollar.

The dollar (DXY) was off 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies and was on track for its first weekly decline in five. [USD/]

Simon Property Group (N:SPG), the No.1 U.S. mall owner, raised its offer for Macerich Co (N:MAC) three days after its smaller rival rejected its earlier offer, adopted a poison pill and changed board structure to prevent a hostile takeover. Simon Property advanced 1.1 percent to $194.16 while Macerich lost 7.6 percent to $86.38.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 2,268 to 482, for a 4.71-to-1 ratio; on the Nasdaq, 1,682 issues rose and 642 fell for a 2.62-to-1 ratio favoring advancers.

The benchmark S&P 500 index was posting 52 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite was recording 130 new highs and 7 new lows.

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Starring Korean artist advertisement Alcoholic Beverages

Princes : One alcoholic drink is quite popular in Korea is soju. With an alcohol content varying between 16.7% and 45%, soju favorite Korean society.

This traditional drink has now been transformed into a more modern packaging. Not only packaging, marketing even more diverse ways, one using ads starring artists K-Pop sexy


One only Shin Min Ah was lined up to be a model for the brand Jinro soju advertisement 'J'. With a casual appearance, Shin Min Ah remains tempting.

Although soju including alcoholic drinks are very cheap there but fans of the drink is favored by all classes, from the poor to the rich, as well as ordinary people to the artist or the state officials really like this Korean traditional beverage.

Jinro soju brand also could capture the poses prettiest Ha Ji Won for their advertisements and posters.

Shin Se Kyung innocent makes  soju advertisement Fun Yeah. The concept of this ad is a fun and gentle

Actor Jo In Sung and Go June Hee joined into a model supporting a brand of soju, Korean alcoholic beverage most popular

Beautiful and sexy singer is also not forget, Lee Hyori is now back with the newest CF for soju brands

Well so Beauty this korean girl, with accessories drinks that can make our bodies feel drift enjoy.

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Six Porn Actress With Pay Expensive

Princes.in : Production House (PH) which resulted in a porn movie turns out to be able to issue a small cost to pay the artist who became a star in porn films they make.

Rates are to be issued by the manufacturer of porn it can reach millions to tens of millions of US dollars, the following six porn stars paid millions of dollars, could be 6 porn actress is the highest paid porn actress:

1. Jenna Haze

Porn actress of mixed Arab States is being paid 3.5 million dollars for a porn movie that starred.

2. Sasha Grey

Age Sasha gray is still young enough that 24 years, at a young age that she had become a porn star with bayara 2.5 million dollars per movie.

3. Bree Olson

Porn actress who has a cute face is getting bayara 5 million dollars for each film he starred.

4. Gianna Michaels

Porn actress who began Kariri as sexy model in the city of Seattle, the United States is getting paid 2 million dollars for one play porn.

5. Terra Patrcik

Name Terra Patrick was very famous in the world of porn films, she received a fee for one-time play porn is 15 million dollars

6. Jenna Jameson

Jenna jameson porn may be the highest-paid actress in the world today, once he plays porn, he was paid at the rate of 30 million dollars

See Video ===>> Video Porn Star <<===

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Indonesian women was Beautiful Outside In

Miss World 2014 Rolene Strauss will enliven the evening peak of Miss Indonesia 2015 in Hall D2, JI-Expo Kemayoran, Jakarta, Monday night, February 16th, 2015 at 20:30 pm. Women from South Africa it was very keen to visit Indonesia.

As Miss World, Rolene Strauss must have criteria for Miss Indonesia 2015 SINDOnews specifically interviewed Miss World 2014 Rolene Strauss in Lamoda Cafe, Plaza Indonesia, Jakarta.

What is the first visit of Miss World?
Do Not. This is the second visit of Miss World. Specials my second visit. The first time we visited China. This is the second visit.

What lesson do you gain from the visit of Miss World?
Yes, this is my second visit and I do a lot of things. I will remember this will be a very long condition. But I would enjoy this trip. Meet different people, different cultures, and culture of Indonesia. Love Indonesian food and I will be a lot to learn a lot of things and I will make the changes.

What do you think about Jakarta?
Jakarta was beautiful. I will think of and remember continue every week. At the moment in the car-free days a week, all the way to happy with a relaxed and I was shocked. I really like the food and it was so amazing.

Criteria to be Miss Indonesia 2015?
Criteria for the Miss World and Miss Indonesia are very similar. Must be friendly to everyone. Should warm to everyone and receive any. should be proud of their own country. Because you do not just bring yourselves but your country as well and to win in London, he was alone. So it must be present, do the best. Because all assessing Indonesia. I thought it was and should bring the good name of the State. State must love and sharing.

Experience in the Miss World competition?
The best for me in the Miss World competition is women who are very beautiful in various countries. Beautiful women from 121 different countries come together, do not know from a different country, do not know anything, bring a lot of people from different countries, meet each other. we know each other. Equally help, both became friends.

Expectations for the Final of Miss Indonesia 2105?
I will look at the results and see the video, Maria has been demonstrated, and I really like. And I was amazed, all in favor of Indonesia. This country is very loved and was amazed, seeing all the support Miss Indonesia to the success of the country is.

What do you think about women in Indonesia?
I think women in Indonesia was beautiful inside and every state has specific criteria. When I met Maria (Maria Asteria Sastrayu Rahajeng, Miss Indonesia 2014), I saw him a formidable female figure and survive. I admire his personality as a woman.

What about Indonesian food?
He, yesterday after lunch, I ate fried goat and many cabainya, spicy, and I love it.

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Maria Harfanti So Pedestal Indonesia in Miss World

Chairwoman of the Miss Indonesia Organization, Liliana Tanoesoedibjo congratulate him on the election of Maria Harfanti as Miss Indonesia 2015, replacing Mary Rahajeng. According to him, Maria Harfanti is a formidable figure and have the talent so right won the crown of Miss Indonesia 2015.

"We are grateful tonight to get Miss Indonesia 2015, Maria was a formidable figure, and he is the figure has a great talent from the show, he has a good public speaking," said Liliana after attending the final night of Miss Indonesia 2015 in Jakarta, Monday (16/2 ) night.

Liliana hopeful to Mary Harfanti to be able to contribute fully in the Miss World 2015, and capable of the name of Indonesia on the world stage. "Miss World 2015 to be better than in previous years. I hope filled with Mary. I believe what he had, and Maria dipunya talent that can contribute in Miss World 2015," he said.

Earlier, Maria Harfanti, which is representative of the Special Region (DI) Yogyakarta, won the crown of Miss Indonesia 2015, after beating 33 other finalists. Meanwhile, representatives of North Sumatra, Savina Wibowo seize the first runner-up, and Yona Miagan of Papua won the second runner-up.

Questions to Maria Harfanti about creating programs for the community over domestic product love him as champion. Maria Harfanti won the crown of Miss Indonesia 2015 previously worn by Miss Indonesia 2014 Maria Rahajeng.

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Controversy Artist Jessica Iskandar After Married Search Certificate Not Married

Selly Wahyu, personal assistant Jessica Iskandar reveal majikanya brief relationship with Ludwig Franz Willibald.

According to Selly, Jessica has not been seen together since February 2014. While Ludwig Jessica megaku married on December 11, 2013.
"Almost three months. December 2013 until February 2014," said Selly in the Administrative Court, East Jakarta, Thursday (12/2).

During live together, Selly not see any rift Jessica and Ludwig.
Selly who opted to stay with Jessica in the Ciganjur, assess Ludwig and his employer is a harmonious pair.

  "They Harmony. Sleeping in the room remains the same," he said.


Meanwhile TEAM attorney Ludwig bring witnesses, M Salah, head of the neighborhood that makes a statement to testify in the trial of Jessica Iskandar abortion marriage certificate in the State Administrative Court (Administrative Court).
In testimony to the Chairman of the local neighborhood, it was revealed that the cover letter RT and RW are not synchronized.

Jessica made keteragan unmarried letter on December 17, 2013. In fact, Jessica shows marriage documents in the True Jesus Church on Dec. 11.
"The letter was made by the second defendant intervention December 17, argued December 11 why was made on December 17, so inconsistent," said Windri Marietha, attorney Ludwig in the Administrative Court, East Jakarta, Thursday (12/2).

It is asserted that the allegations of making fictitious marriage certificate increasingly true.
"The letter is a letter of introduction unmarried person will hold," said M Harvardy Iqbal, attorney Ludwig.
Harvardy witness added that he was carrying a very competent and independent.
"Chairman of the RT does not know Ludwig, and lived in the neighborhood," he concluded.

The trial continued abortion lawsuit marriage certificate Jessica Iskandar and Ludwig Franz Willibald, until the key witness testimony of Jessica, as the intervention II.
Selly Wahyu who works as a personal assistant Jessica presented to the State Administrative Court (Administrative Court). In his testimony, Selly disclose Ludwig romance with her boss who already live together in Ciganjur region in 2013.

"When you witness knew Ludwig and Jessica live together?" asked Chief Justice, SH Haryati trial.
"The end of 2013. In Ciganjur, Kerinci Road No.88, Ciganjur. It was a private residence," said Selly.

Then Selly confirms that Jessica and Ludwig to sleep in the same room. "Yes the room. I do every morning between breakfast to Jessica. There Ludwig, were in bed together," he said.
Selly also heard conversations with Ludwig Jessica wedding plans to be held November 2014.
Selly summoned to court because he was mentioned as a witness on behalf of the Ludwig wedding

EVEN church denied, Jessica Iskandar still believe in the existence of legitimate marriage with Ludwig Franz Willibald.

Brian Praneda, attorney Jessica revealed his client is married outside the church building with the approval of the True Jesus Church.

"Do outside the church has been requested by the board and treaties, delivered Jessica feared a public figure and not want a wedding in the exposure so that the blessing is done outside the church," said Brian in the State Administrative Court (Administrative Court), East Jakarta, Thursday (5 / 2).

However, Pastor Andrea Halingkar of GYS give statements turned to Brian. In his testimony before the Administrative Court Judge, Andrea stated, wedding blessing can only be done in the church.
"As long as he is the True Jesus church, married justified in any branch, but it must be in a church blessing," said Andrea.

Of Rev. Andrea statement, explained that the church GYS just married congregation. Meanwhile, from the data collected Ludwig Jessica or not registered as a church GYS.
"There was never a church in the name of Jessica and Ludwig. We have a check in several branches YS church. All data are available in the church congregation YS center," he concluded.


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Police Arrest Ex-Husband Artis Sexy Cita Citata

Galina Purnama just which used to be called Ijonk officer arrested on suspicion of theft Polrestabes Bandung. Not alone, Cita Citata husband was picked up by the police along with two of his friends.

"Based on information from the investigator, (Ijonk) was arrested along with two colleagues, namely AIB and LS," said Ahmed Ramzy, attorney Audi Reza Hartanto (Arez) as complainant

Ramzy added, Ijonk arrested after undergoing divorce trial with Cita in Bandung Islamic Court. Pick-up process took place at around 12.00 pm.

"The arrest was after a trial in Bandung Islamic Court. As anticipated, Ijonk reported by Arez for allegedly stealing his guitar. Arez claiming a loss of up to Rp 35 million.

On the other side of the Weird. Such was the case and so is feeling Galina Purnama aka Ijonk, Cita Citata husband who police  own colleagues on the case of theft.

Ijonk reported on cases of theft by Audi Reza on suspicion of theft of musical instruments valued at USD 35 million. The case itself even happened a long time but recently sued today.

Initially, Ijonk borrow a set of instruments including electric guitar. But then the instruments were missing. When it Ijonk admitted that he had apologized and Arez (greeting Audi) sincere

"In essence we are given the tools, wear wrote Arez say this. We do not take some stealth," the story in Studio Palem, South Jakarta

After that, Ijonk felt uncomfortable with Arez. But Arez assured him that guitar loss problem does not matter.

"Whenever I see him say outright," said Ijonk.

Men from Bandung was also said that he always had a good faith every meet Arez. He intends to replace the guitar. However, the intention was actually never taken Arez.

From there, Ijonk the middle of a divorce process Cita it feels weird. Moreover, today's new issue.

"From yesterday would replace him escape. I call refrain constantly present this mean anything," he said, surprised.

Cita today to witness the case. He was examined by Polrestabes Bandung on Arez report.

"So strange. The term time in the band he did not know Cita. When I arrive at Cita, it already passed the loss incident," said Ijonk who also denied looking popularity because of this case.

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