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Belajar Forex Gratis

Should You Be Buying Dollars Here?

Should You Be Buying Dollars Here?
ECB Sends EURO On Rollercoaster Ride
USD/CAD Melts Down On BoC and Oil
NZD: Prices Fall 3% at Latest Dairy Auction
AUD Shakes Off Disappointing Chinese Data, Employment Next
Sterling Lifted by Dollar Weakness


Buying Dollars


Another round of weaker U.S. economic reports drove the dollar sharply lower against all of the major currencies Wednesday. In the past 48 hours, the sentiment in the market has changed significantly with investors now worried that the dollar has peaked. If one thing could change the Fed’s mind about raising interest rates, it would be that economic data and recent reports do not support the case for tightening. Wednesday morning we learned that manufacturing activity in the NY region contracted and that industrial production declined. Earlier in the week, retail sales fell short of expectations. Is that enough for the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates this year? No. According to the Beige Book, the economy continued to expand in most regions between the middle of February and the end of March. Economic activity grew at a moderate pace with stable or modest improvements in the labor market. So if the outlook for monetary policy has not changed, the next question to ask is whether it's a good time to buy dollars. From a long-term perspective we still like buying U.S. dollars, especially since the risk of U.K. election uncertainty and the possibility of a rate hike by the RBA has not been removed. But as mentioned in yesterday’s note, EUR/USD could test 1.08 and USD/JPY could drop to 118.25 before that happens. So while you could buy dollars here, you may have the opportunity to do so at a better price later. Housing starts, building permits and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are scheduled for release Thursday. These second-tier reports are not expected to have a lasting impact on the dollar.

ECB Sends EURO On Rollercoaster Ride

The most exciting part of Wednesday’s European Central Bank meeting was that a political activist jumped on the table in front of Draghi waving her hands and calling for an end to the “ECB dick-tatorship.” No one was hurt, the disruption lasted minutes and the central bank President quickly resumed his press conference. Earlier in the morning, the ECB left monetary policy unchanged and at the conference that followed, Mario Draghi expressed his satisfaction with the smooth implementation of QE and the effectiveness of the program thus far. The tone of the press conference was decidedly more upbeat with the ECB head saying that the recovery is broadening and strengthening. These improvements diminished the economic risks and moves the economy in the right direction. Draghi ruled out a rate cut and instead said that the central bank can adjust QE if needed. European policymakers are happy with how Quantitative Easing is working and this optimism helped to stem the slide in EUR/USD. While a further short squeeze could drive EUR/USD higher, negative rates in Germany should cap the gains in the currency pair. S&P also downgraded Greece on Wednesday to CCC+/C with a negative outlook. While Mario Draghi does not believe that Greece’s problems will harm the world economy, negative headlines could still affect the currency.

USD/CAD Melts Down On BoC and Oil

The worst-performing currency pair Wednesday was USD/CAD, which fell sharply on the back of a less dovish Bank of Canada monetary policy statement, weaker U.S. data and higher oil prices. The BoC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely anticipated but having just warned about an atrocious quarter, few expected the air of optimism. While the central bank lowered its Q1 and 2015 GDP forecasts, they raised their outlook for 2016 growth. Most importantly, they upgraded their assessment of inflation by saying that the risks are now roughly balanced. The central bank expects the economy to reach its full capacity next year with conditions expected to improve in the second half of 2015. Not only did Governor Poloz say that he is looking past the oil impact on inflation but he also recognized the improvements in the labor market and said he expects a soft landing in housing. In other words, a rate cut is now off the table. Between their less dovish tone and the 5% rally in oil prices, USD/CAD dropped to its lowest level in 2 months. Further losses are likely with no support until the 100-day SMA near 1.22. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also performed extremely well despite disappointing Chinese data. GDP growth met the government’s 7% forecast but industrial production and retail-sales growth slowed significantly. Dairy prices fell for the third auction in a row but the 3.6% decline was far more modest than the 10% drop at the last auction. Wednesday night’s Australian employment report could take some of the focus off the U.S. dollar. Weaker numbers would remind investors of the challenges that Australia’s economy faces and the serious risk of a rate cut by the RBA next month
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Sterling Lifted by Dollar Weakness

The British pound traded higher versus the U.S. dollar and euro but with no U.K. economic data on the calendar, the moves were driven entirely by the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars and in a very small part, euros. Sterling has now rallied against the greenback for 3 straight days and we don’t expect the moves to last. The U.K. general election is 3 weeks away and its impact on the British pound will be significant. This general election is filled with uncertainty and sterling has been under pressure because of the fear that the Conservative Party will fail to win enough seats. We expect the British pound to fall further in the weeks ahead with GBP/USD falling to a fresh 4-year low after the election. What makes this year’s election different from 2010 is the potential power grab by smaller parties that could lead to more difficulty in forming a coalition. If this leads to a hung parliament, it will translate into more losses for the currency. Sterling 3 month option volatiles are at a 3-year high but could rise even further as it did in 2010. Five years ago volatility jumped to 17% in the days after the election and not only did GBP/USD fall 400 pips on election day, but it dropped another 500 pips in the 2 weeks that followed.

Luxury Vehicle Report: BMW 640i

There are few premium car manufacturers in the world that can compete with the so-called “German Big Three” in terms of the all around performance of their vehicles, not to mention appearance and luxury.  The “German Big Three” includes, of course, Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW.  Founded in Munich, Germany in 1916, BMW was initially created to manufacture aircrafts.  After the conclusion of World War I, BMW began to expand its horizons, creating motorcycles and automobiles in the 1920s.  For the last 85 plus years, BMW has all but perfected the art of luxury automobile manufacturing.

BMW 640i




One of the triumphs of BMW as of the last several years is the second generation of the 6 series.  After the success of the first generation of the 6 series, the expectations for the second generation were high, and BMW did not disappoint.  With the series introduced in 2010, production began in 2011.  Over the last few years, the cars that belong to the 6 series family of vehicles have impressed to say the least.


Next to 6 series highlights the M6, and big brother the 650i, the 640i is one of the most impressive vehicles to come out of the current generation thus far.  While its engine may not produce the same power as the 650i, the BMW 640i is equally as luxurious, to be sure.


The BMW 640i has 315 horsepower, which is respectable, but the increase to the 650i’s 445 horsepower is going to be difficult to turn down for potential buyers.  The engine of the 640i is a 3 liter BMW-made twin turbo V8, which is capable not only of producing a substantial amount of horsepower, but also 330 ft-lbs of torque at the car’s ideal rpm.


The 8 speed sports automatic transmission allows the car to be almost impossibly smooth to drive, as well.  This system allows the driver to go from a stopped position to 60 miles per hour in 5.2 seconds, which is rather impressive for a four door luxury vehicle.  The car’s top speed is 155 miles per hour, which the car can reach with startling ease.


While the 650i’s performance numbers are more impressive than the 640i’s, the 640i’s luxurious accommodations and incredibly smooth drive should be more than enough for a laid back luxury vehicle owner not looking to win any drag races.  With all the luxuries that have come to be expected from BMW, this car would no doubt be a joy to own.  The most affordable member of the 6 series family of vehicles, the BMW 640i has a base price of $75,400.

Indonesian court to decide on Bali Nine execution appeal on April 6

An Indonesian court hearing the appeals of two Australian death row convicts will announce a verdict on April 6, one of the judges determining the case said on Wednesday.

Bali Nine execution




Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan are among a group of 10 prisoners, mostly foreigners, facing imminent execution for drug offenses after President Joko Widodo rejected their pleas for clemency.

"Both sides have been given ample opportunity to present evidence and testimony," Ujang Abdullah, one of a panel of three judges, told the court. "The judges will decide on the case after studying the evidence submitted.

The court was adjourned until Monday, when the judges would read their verdicts in both cases, he said.

The Australian government has repeatedly asked Indonesia to spare the lives of Sukumaran and Chan. Widodo has refused to budge, ramping up diplomatic tensions between the neighbors.

Lawyers for the two Australians have been trying to convince the court since February that it has the jurisdiction to hear their appeal against the president's rejection of a plea for clemency for the pair.

Judges rejected that argument last month.

"We will respect the judges who are now considering everything before ruling on the case," Leonard Arfan, a lawyer representing the two Australians, told reporters. "We respect the ongoing process and we're just waiting for the decision."

Sukumaran and Chan were arrested in 2005 as the ringleaders in a plot by a group, which came to be known as the Bali Nine, to smuggle heroin out of Indonesia.

At least four other death row inmates have appealed against their sentences.

Indonesia's attorney general has said all 10 prisoners would face the firing squad together but has yet to set a date for their executions.

The group awaiting execution includes citizens of Brazil, France, Ghana, Nigeria, the Philippines and Indonesia.

Vice President Jusuf Kalla told Reuters last month that it could take weeks or even months for the executions to take place.

Indonesia has harsh penalties for drug trafficking and resumed executions in 2013 after a five-year gap.

With the upcoming executions, Indonesia will have exercised the death penalty more times in a single year than ever before.
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