Should You Be Buying Dollars Here?

Should You Be Buying Dollars Here?
ECB Sends EURO On Rollercoaster Ride
USD/CAD Melts Down On BoC and Oil
NZD: Prices Fall 3% at Latest Dairy Auction
AUD Shakes Off Disappointing Chinese Data, Employment Next
Sterling Lifted by Dollar Weakness

Another round of weaker U.S. economic reports drove the dollar sharply lower against all of the major currencies Wednesday. In the past 48 hours, the sentiment in the market has changed significantly with investors now worried that the dollar has peaked. If one thing could change the Fed’s mind about raising interest rates, it would be that economic data and recent reports do not support the case for tightening. Wednesday morning we learned that manufacturing activity in the NY region contracted and that industrial production declined. Earlier in the week, retail sales fell short of expectations. Is that enough for the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates this year? No. According to the Beige Book, the economy continued to expand in most regions between the middle of February and the end of March. Economic activity grew at a moderate pace with stable or modest improvements in the labor market. So if the outlook for monetary policy has not changed, the next question to ask is whether it's a good time to buy dollars. From a long-term perspective we still like buying U.S. dollars, especially since the risk of U.K. election uncertainty and the possibility of a rate hike by the RBA has not been removed. But as mentioned in yesterday’s note, EUR/USD could test 1.08 and USD/JPY could drop to 118.25 before that happens. So while you could buy dollars here, you may have the opportunity to do so at a better price later. Housing starts, building permits and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are scheduled for release Thursday. These second-tier reports are not expected to have a lasting impact on the dollar.

ECB Sends EURO On Rollercoaster Ride

The most exciting part of Wednesday’s European Central Bank meeting was that a political activist jumped on the table in front of Draghi waving her hands and calling for an end to the “ECB dick-tatorship.” No one was hurt, the disruption lasted minutes and the central bank President quickly resumed his press conference. Earlier in the morning, the ECB left monetary policy unchanged and at the conference that followed, Mario Draghi expressed his satisfaction with the smooth implementation of QE and the effectiveness of the program thus far. The tone of the press conference was decidedly more upbeat with the ECB head saying that the recovery is broadening and strengthening. These improvements diminished the economic risks and moves the economy in the right direction. Draghi ruled out a rate cut and instead said that the central bank can adjust QE if needed. European policymakers are happy with how Quantitative Easing is working and this optimism helped to stem the slide in EUR/USD. While a further short squeeze could drive EUR/USD higher, negative rates in Germany should cap the gains in the currency pair. S&P also downgraded Greece on Wednesday to CCC+/C with a negative outlook. While Mario Draghi does not believe that Greece’s problems will harm the world economy, negative headlines could still affect the currency.

USD/CAD Melts Down On BoC and Oil

The worst-performing currency pair Wednesday was USD/CAD, which fell sharply on the back of a less dovish Bank of Canada monetary policy statement, weaker U.S. data and higher oil prices. The BoC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely anticipated but having just warned about an atrocious quarter, few expected the air of optimism. While the central bank lowered its Q1 and 2015 GDP forecasts, they raised their outlook for 2016 growth. Most importantly, they upgraded their assessment of inflation by saying that the risks are now roughly balanced. The central bank expects the economy to reach its full capacity next year with conditions expected to improve in the second half of 2015. Not only did Governor Poloz say that he is looking past the oil impact on inflation but he also recognized the improvements in the labor market and said he expects a soft landing in housing. In other words, a rate cut is now off the table. Between their less dovish tone and the 5% rally in oil prices, USD/CAD dropped to its lowest level in 2 months. Further losses are likely with no support until the 100-day SMA near 1.22. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also performed extremely well despite disappointing Chinese data. GDP growth met the government’s 7% forecast but industrial production and retail-sales growth slowed significantly. Dairy prices fell for the third auction in a row but the 3.6% decline was far more modest than the 10% drop at the last auction. Wednesday night’s Australian employment report could take some of the focus off the U.S. dollar. Weaker numbers would remind investors of the challenges that Australia’s economy faces and the serious risk of a rate cut by the RBA next month
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Sterling Lifted by Dollar Weakness

The British pound traded higher versus the U.S. dollar and euro but with no U.K. economic data on the calendar, the moves were driven entirely by the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars and in a very small part, euros. Sterling has now rallied against the greenback for 3 straight days and we don’t expect the moves to last. The U.K. general election is 3 weeks away and its impact on the British pound will be significant. This general election is filled with uncertainty and sterling has been under pressure because of the fear that the Conservative Party will fail to win enough seats. We expect the British pound to fall further in the weeks ahead with GBP/USD falling to a fresh 4-year low after the election. What makes this year’s election different from 2010 is the potential power grab by smaller parties that could lead to more difficulty in forming a coalition. If this leads to a hung parliament, it will translate into more losses for the currency. Sterling 3 month option volatiles are at a 3-year high but could rise even further as it did in 2010. Five years ago volatility jumped to 17% in the days after the election and not only did GBP/USD fall 400 pips on election day, but it dropped another 500 pips in the 2 weeks that followed.

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Indonesian court to decide on Bali Nine execution appeal on April 6

An Indonesian court hearing the appeals of two Australian death row convicts will announce a verdict on April 6, one of the judges determining the case said on Wednesday.

Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan are among a group of 10 prisoners, mostly foreigners, facing imminent execution for drug offenses after President Joko Widodo rejected their pleas for clemency.

"Both sides have been given ample opportunity to present evidence and testimony," Ujang Abdullah, one of a panel of three judges, told the court. "The judges will decide on the case after studying the evidence submitted.

The court was adjourned until Monday, when the judges would read their verdicts in both cases, he said.

The Australian government has repeatedly asked Indonesia to spare the lives of Sukumaran and Chan. Widodo has refused to budge, ramping up diplomatic tensions between the neighbors.

Lawyers for the two Australians have been trying to convince the court since February that it has the jurisdiction to hear their appeal against the president's rejection of a plea for clemency for the pair.

Judges rejected that argument last month.

"We will respect the judges who are now considering everything before ruling on the case," Leonard Arfan, a lawyer representing the two Australians, told reporters. "We respect the ongoing process and we're just waiting for the decision."

Sukumaran and Chan were arrested in 2005 as the ringleaders in a plot by a group, which came to be known as the Bali Nine, to smuggle heroin out of Indonesia.

At least four other death row inmates have appealed against their sentences.

Indonesia's attorney general has said all 10 prisoners would face the firing squad together but has yet to set a date for their executions.

The group awaiting execution includes citizens of Brazil, France, Ghana, Nigeria, the Philippines and Indonesia.

Vice President Jusuf Kalla told Reuters last month that it could take weeks or even months for the executions to take place.

Indonesia has harsh penalties for drug trafficking and resumed executions in 2013 after a five-year gap.

With the upcoming executions, Indonesia will have exercised the death penalty more times in a single year than ever before.

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Crude oil prices eased in early Asia

Crude oil prices eased in early Asia on Tuesday with investors focused on U.S. industry supply data later in the day as well as the progress of talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear program.

The American Petroleum Institute will release estimates of crude, gasoline and distillate stocks last week later Tuesday, which come ahead of more closely-watched data on the same from the Department of energy on Wednesday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for May delivery fell 0.79% to $48.26 a barrel.

Overnight, crude oil prices slid on Monday as a deadline for a deal regarding Iran's nuclear program neared, exacerbating concerns that a relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil exports could add significantly to the glut in global oil supply.

A late rally in the final minutes of trading on Monday pared previous losses, after a State Department spokesperson said there's a "50-50 chance," an agreement with Iran will be reached by Tuesday. While crude futures gained more than a dollar a barrel just before the close, the last-minute rebound failed to offset an earlier sell-off.

In Lausanne, Switzerland, a bevy of foreign ministers from major world powers met with Iran, reportedly pressing Iranian leaders to budge on the final critical details of a long-awaited agreement. The sides have set a deadline for Tuesday at midnight to reach an agreement on a preliminary outline for a deal aimed at limiting Iran's capabilities enough to keep a nuclear bomb out of reach.

Hampered by heavy economic sanctions over the last three years, Iran has reportedly exported just over a million barrels of crude oil a day since 2012. An easing of sanctions could depress crude prices due to heightening supply.

Iran holds the world's fourth-highest level of crude oil reserves, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a supply level (of 157 billion barrels) that amounts to approximately 10% of total global crude storage. The rigid sanctions, in turn, have boosted Iranian oil supply. Iran reportedly has hoarded 30 million barrels of oil on its fleet of offshore supertankers, Reuters reported last week.

Opec, meanwhile, said in a mid-March report that heavy crude oil prices in Iran increased to $53.26 for the month of February, a spike of more than $10 a barrel from the prior month. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has set a production target of 5.7 million barrels per day of crude oil by 2018, the Tehran Times reported according to official Iranian government statements.

The Iranian prices for crude are slightly below current futures for the international benchmark. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Brent for May delivery fell 0.37% or 0.21 to $56.20 a barrel on Monday.

Global oil supply is approaching record levels in large part due to the Shale boom throughout the United States. In the U.S. oil is being pumped at its fastest rate in more than 30 years.

As a result, U.S. storage capacity has hovered around 60% in recent weeks -- more than doubling from its level of 12 months ago.

If the U.S. reaches storage capacity at some point this summer, there are mounting fears that crude oil could plunge below $30 a barrel. Oil futures are currently down more than 50% from the triple-digit levels reached last July.

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Now Firing In The Eurozone

The ECB lowered its deposit rate for banks below zero last year to -0.1% on June 5 and to -0.2% on September 4. The result has been that banks seem to be starting to lend again. This past Friday, we learned that over the past three months through February, Eurozone loans rose €659.2 billion at an annual rate. Lending to households rose €112 billion at an annual rate, while lending to nonfinancial corporations rose €162 billion. Country data are available with more of a lag for lending, which is most likely picking up especially well in Spain and Italy, while continuing to expand in Germany and France.

In addition, there has been a significant upswing in the growth rates of the monetary aggregates in the Eurozone since early last year. M2 is up 4.0% y/y through February, the best pace since August 2013. Furthermore, in local currency terms, the EMU MSCI stock price index is up 17.8% YTD, besting all the other major MSCI indexes as follows: Japan (10.5%), UK (4.2), All-Country World (4.0), Emerging Markets (2.7), and US (0.5).

The Eurozone is benefitting from near-zero interest rates, QE, a weak euro, rising bank lending, soaring stock prices, and lower oil prices. If these six cylinders don’t revive the region’s economy, then nothing will. Of course, the possibility of a Grexit continues to hang over the Eurozone. However, the strong performance of stocks suggests that investors believe it won’t happen or it won’t matter much if it does. I tend to agree.

Today's Morning Briefing: Split Personality. (1) Catalonia and Provence. (2) Additional autonomy more likely than independence. (3) Busy pace in Spain. (4) Draghi more popular than Rajoy. (5) Bank loans starting to expand in Eurozone. (6) Monetary growth rising too. (7) Lots to fuel better growth in Eurozone. (8) Ups and downs for US economy. (9) Employment indicators are upbeat, while production-related ones are mixed. (10) Tale of four cities in Spain and in US. (11) Fed’s talking heads sending mixed message.



NZD/USD declines after U.S. GDP data



The New Zealand dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, to trade at one-week lows as demand for the greenback remained broadly supported by Friday's upbeat fourth-quarter U.S. growth data and remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

NZD/USD hit 0.7525 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since March 20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7516, sliding 0.65%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7448, the low of March 5 and resistance at 0.7619, the high of March 27.

The greenback remained supported after the Commerce Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and below economists’ forecasts for an upward revision to 2.4%.

Separately, In addition, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a speech on Friday that a rate hike may be warranted later this year, but added that weakening inflation pressures could force the Fed to delay.

Ms. Yellen said policy tightening could "speed up, slow down, pause, or even reverse course" depending on how the economy is performing.

The kiwi was fractionally lower against the Australian dollar, with AUD/NZD edging up 0.08% to 1.0248.

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

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Ready to invest $1 billion in Ukraine if West helps by Soros says

(Princes) - Billionaire financier George Soros is ready to invest $1 billion in Ukraine, if Western countries help private investment there. He also put the odds of Greece leaving the euro at a third, in an interview with Austrian newspaper Der Standard.

Soros has previously urged the West to step up aid to Ukraine, outlining steps towards a $50 billion financing package that he said should be viewed as a bulwark against an increasingly aggressive Russia.

"The West can help Ukraine by increasing attractiveness for investors. A political risk insurance is necessary. This could take the form of mezzanine financing at EU interest rates -- very close to zero," he said in an interview published on Monday.

"I stand ready. There are concrete investment ideas, for example in agriculture and infrastructure projects. I would put in $1 billion. This must generate a profit. My foundation would benefit from this ... Private engagement needs strong political leadership."

The Hungarian-born hedge fund magnate, who made his name betting against the pound in 1992, also put the chance of Greece leaving the euro zone at a third. Last week he put it at 50:50.




Ford revives the Lincoln Continental, aims at U.S. and China


 Ford Motor Co (N:F) will resurrect the Lincoln Continental as its top-of-the line luxury sedan, betting the classic name will help rebuild the brand's image in the United States and China.

Ford's Lincoln will unveil a prototype of the future Continental sedan on Monday ahead of the April 3-12 New York auto show, which will feature many of the Continental's future rivals, including the Cadillac CT6 sedan from General Motors Co (N:GM), a new Jaguar XF sedan from Jaguar Land Rover and a bevy of super-premium models from Daimler AG's (DE:DAIGn) Mercedes Benz.

Ford retired the Continental name in 2002, and joined its rivals in using letter and number codes for most models. But memories lived on in China, where Continentals had been the car of political leaders and celebrities. China now is the main market for premium sedans such as the Audi A6 or A8, the Mercedes S-class or the BMW 7-series.

Ford executives say they were surprised to learn that the Continental name also had legs in the United States, where grandly-proportioned Continentals from the 1960s had prominent cameo roles in movies such as the popular "Matrix" science fiction series.

What clinched it, said Ford Chief Executive Mark Fields, was that early designs for the next large Lincoln sedan "weren't as good as we wanted them to be." About 18 months ago, Fields said he and other senior executives decided to call the car the Continental based on the positive research.

"Immediately, people's eyes lit up," Fields said. The show car debuts a new look for Lincoln, with a grille and stance that lean more toward Jaguar or Maserati than Cadillac or BMW.

When it launches next year, the production Continental will be the latest salvo in a $2.5 billion renovation of Lincoln. In the United States, the brand lags well behind BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Cadillac and Lexus. Lincoln's U.S. sales are up 1.2 percent for the first two months of 2015, lagging the 9.2 percent increase in the overall market.

By 2020, Ford wants to expand Lincoln sales globally to 300,000 vehicles a year, about triple current sales, Fields said.

Ford is in the early stages of relaunching Lincoln in China, with 11 dealerships and 25 planned by the end of 2015. Ford has not announced plans to build Lincoln vehicles there. GM says it plans to build the CT6 in China and at its factory in Hamtramck, Michigan.

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Will EUR/USD Hit 1.12 or 1.06?

EUR/USD
(Last Price: 1.0919)
BUY, Entry = 1.0919, SL = 1.0876, TP = 1.1006
if wrong then SELL, Entry = 1.0876, SL = 1.0966, TP = 1.0806

GBP/USD
(Last Price: 1.4928)
SELL, Entry = 1.4930, SL = 1.4970, TP = 1.4890
if wrong then BUY, Entry = 1.4970, SL = 1.4930, TP = 1.5010

USD/JPY
no comment

USD/CHF
(Last Price: 0.9678)
SELL, Entry = 0.9646, SL = 0.9686, TP = 0.9606
if wrong then BUY, Entry = 0.9686, SL = 0.9646, TP = 0.9726

AUD/USD
(Last Price: 0.7861)
BUY, Entry = 0.7894, SL = 0.7854, TP = 0.7934
if wrong then SELL, Entry = 0.7854, SL = 0.7894, TP = 0.7814

GOLD (XAU/USD)
Last Price (1,187.00)
Move (UP) first is higher

To trade in Forex, better to use Trailing Stop 20 points as your TP, and Max Risk < 3%
Important Forex Movement Schedule (time zone: GMT+7 / WIB):
8:15 USD
11:50 AUD
15:00 EUR
15:30 EUR
16:00 EUR
16:30 GBP
19:30 USD
20:45 USD
21:00 USD

    Will EUR/USD Hit 1.12 or 1.06?
    Low Yields Keep Dollar Weak
    AUD Soars Ahead of Chinese Data
    USD/CAD Hits Fresh 5-Year Highs
    NZD Bounces on Stronger Data
    AUD Rallies Ahead of Chinese PMI
    GBP: Export Orders Hit 2-Year Lows

Will EUR/USD Hit 1.12 or 1.06?

Investors continued to sell US dollars on Monday, driving EUR/USD within a whisker of 1.10. After last week’s FOMC meeting, daily trading ranges for many currency pairs expanded significantly and since then currencies have fluctuated within the wider bounds. The euro has been the biggest beneficiary of dollar weakness because short positions have been extremely overstretched and the lack of follow through on the back of the FOMC meeting prompted many EUR/USD traders to unwind their short trades by buying the currency back. No Eurozone data was released Monday but comments from ECB officials on the possibility of QE ending earlier helped to lift the currency. As the EUR/USD bounces off its 12-year lows and closes at the day’s high, many investors are now wondering if EUR/USD has bottomed.

To answer that question, we want to start by saying that the dollar’s rally is far from over. The FOMC statement may not have been as hawkish as some investors anticipated but 15 out of 17 -- or 88% -- of Federal Reserve officials expect the central bank to raise interest rates this year. Tightening by the Fed will come at a time when the European Central Bank is increasing its balance and injecting further stimulus into the Eurozone economy. As long as the foundation of tighter U.S. and looser EZ monetary policy remains, EUR/USD is headed for further losses. So while the euro may break 1.10 against the U.S. dollar and perhaps even test 1.12, we expect a rally to be capped at that level. The downtrend may not resume this week but it will certainly happen in the months to come, which means a move below 1.06 is still a strong target. This week, we have a number of important Eurozone economic reports that could lend support to the euro. This includes Tuesday’s flash PMI reports and Wednesday’s IFO report. Between the weaker euro, lower rates, quantitative easing, the recent improvement in investor confidence (ZEW) and industrial production, the Eurozone economy should start to report more positive surprises. At the same time, however, 12 to 18 months of QE, negative interest rates and ongoing political troubles in Greece will keep the euro on track for parity.

Low Yields Keeps Dollar Weak

The U.S. dollar traded lower against most of the major currencies Monday as profit taking, low yields and a lack of market-moving data discouraged investors from buying dollars. The fact that 10-Year Treasuries are yielding close to 1.9% indicates that investors haven’t returned to their rate-hike bets. Last week Janet Yellen made it clear that a hike anytime after April is possible including the June meeting but that possibility was undermined by downgrades to their economic assessment and forecasts that suggests they will delay tightening to September. Either way, the Fed is poised to raise rates this year and the dollar will push to new highs when a hike nears. In the meantime, we expect choppy consolidation in the majors until next week’s non-farm payrolls report. With only consumer prices, more housing data, durable goods, revisions to Q4 GDP and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report scheduled for release, the focus will be on Fed speak. We heard from two policymakers on Monday – Fischer and Mester. The Vice Chair of the Fed expressed concern about the dollar’s strength and labor market, but felt that a hike before year-end is likely, a view that Mester shares. Bullard, Evans, Lockhart and Yellen are scheduled to speak later this week and the dollar could regain momentum if more policymakers publicly throw their support behind 2015 tightening. The louder the hawks scream, the sooner the dollar will resume its rise. We continue to believe that the dollar is a bargain now and if you don’t buy in the next few days or weeks, you may regret it. With that in mind, one other tactical option would be to wait for the dollar to stabilize and rejoin the move after it starts to rise to ensure that momentum is on your side. Regardless of the strategy, six months from now we expect the dollar to be trading 3% to 5% above current levels.

AUD Soars Ahead of Chinese Data

All three of the commodity currencies traded higher against the U.S. dollar Monday but the strongest gains were seen in the Australian dollar. As no Australian data was released overnight, the move can be largely attributed to positioning. The CFTC data showed that before the FOMC meeting, there was a significant reduction in Australian dollar short positions. Traders started to turn less bearish Aussie and it may have even flipped from net short to longs after the Fed meeting. While the Australian dollar has performed well versus the greenback, euro and British pound, it dropped to a record low versus the New Zealand dollar. Both currencies offer a higher yield than many other major economies but the RBA is still talking about lower rates while the RBNZ has made it clear that rates will remain unchanged for the time being. The decline in dairy prices last week drove the New Zealand dollar lower initially but Fonterra reaffirmed its dairy payout forecast, which helped to revive the rally. Stronger consumer confidence in the first quarter also boosted demand for the currency. There was no data from Australia but steady gold prices and upcoming data have investors turning back to the currency. While economists are looking for a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity, investors are optimistic and looking for stability. If Chinese data surprises to the upside, AUD/USD could hit a 1-month high, but if the report disappoints, the Australian dollar could give up its gains quickly. Finally, the rebound in oil prices drove USD/CAD to 1.25. As we believe that the currency pair will range trade between 1.24 and 1.28 in the coming weeks, USD/CAD is nearing the bottom of this range.

GBP: Export Orders Hit 2-Year Lows

The British pound ended Monday unchanged against the U.S. dollar, making it the day’s worst-performing currency. According to the Confederation of British Industry, industrial trend orders dropped to its lowest level in 2 years. This fueled speculation that the Bank of England will postpone tightening this year as a strong sterling weighs on the economy. This is a busy week for the British pound with inflation data scheduled for release Tuesday and retail sales due on Thursday. We know that the central bank is worried about weak wage growth so it will be interesting to see if it prevented spending from recovering. Inflation is also expected to rebound but unambiguously positive data is needed to take GBP/USD back above 1.50. Aside from concerns about wages, U.K. policymakers also made it clear they are worried about the impact of a strong currency on low inflation. The British pound may have been weak versus the dollar but it has been very strong versus the euro.

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USD Bulls Must Be Patient

Economic indicators out of the U.S over the past few months have surprised to the downside on a number of occasions bringing into question Q1 growth prospects.

As highlighted below we can see there have been 4 months of below expectation expansion on the ISM Manufacturing PMI release. Although we’re yet to see a reading below 50.0 that indicates contraction, we are trending lower and in that direction. This is a genuine reason for concern.

In the midst of falling commodity prices, and specifically oil, it is no real surprise to see inflationary data in the U.S in negative territory. However, this does give the Federal Reserve more flexibility when it comes to the much talked about interest-rate hike. If prices were above the target level deemed acceptable in the Fed’s mandate there would be less of a debate about when the central bank would be tightening monetary policy.

A real concern is that the falling oil prices that were likened to a ‘tax cut’ by U.S officials has not been represented in the U.S Consumer. Retail Sales in 2015 have consistently come out negatively. The worry is that U.S consumers are supposed to have more disposable income as they are saving money at the pump, yet spending by consumers is in decline.

This brings into play the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. There has been a significant drop-off in this sentiment survey since the lofty high of 98.2 in January. The latest report showed a reading of 91.2 in March after 93.6 in Feb. Yes these are positive, again we’re seeing softness.

The real question is how this will impact on U.S growth prospects. A recent report suggests U.S GDP is projecting growth of 1.2% in Q1.

So what does this mean for our market outlook? We have to take into consideration the harsh winter being experienced across the pond, plus the disruption on the West Ports was mentioned no less than 5 times in the “What Respondents are saying” section of the latest ISM Manufacturing report.

If we take into account both the harsh weather conditions and the West Port disruptions are temporary in nature, then we can expect a rebound in U.S economic data as we head into spring and then Q2. The U.S economy still has the benefit of low funding costs and a healthy appetite for lending by U.S banks. This is a good sign for longer-term growth prospects.

Let’s also remember this time last year when another cold winter severely disrupted U.S growth. This resulted in a sell-off in USD throughout Feb and April. EUR/USD rallied from 1.3480 to 1.4000 in this period. However, after the blip in the U.S economy had passed, the market began flooding into USD again.

Currently the circumstances are very similar in terms of longer term fundamental outlook. The divergence in growth and monetary policy remains in place as the ECB embarks on QE whilst the FED considers a rate hike. That said, the noticeable difference this year is the positioning of the market. The softness in data this year come after a monumental USD rally across the board. With the long USD trade overcrowded we would not be surprised to see a more pronounced USD pullback before our longer term bullish dollar bias resumes.

We still favour USD strength across the board, and especially favour the greenback to outperform the AUD as detailed in my previous report.

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Capital Markets In The Week Ahead

The events of the past week will continue to reverberate in the capital markets in the week ahead. The key development was the market’s ultra-dovish read of the Federal Reserve. Although the dollar recouped the lion’s share of the knee-jerk losses, the debt markets have not returned to status quo ante.

Many, if not most, market participants fail to appreciate our heuristic insight into the Federal Reserve: Policy emanates from the leadership of the Federal Reserve: Yellen, Stanley Fischer, and Dudley. We argue that the key organ of the leadership is the FOMC statement. Other communication tools including the dot-plots and the FOMC minutes have a higher ratio of noise to signal.

The FOMC statement dropped the word patience, completing the transition from a date-approach to forward guidance to a data-driven approach. Fearing that the markets would conclude that a hike was imminent, the statement offset the seemingly hawkish development with an acknowledgement that the economic growth had moderated, and exports had slowed. Other than that, the FOMC statement was little changed from January.

Participants emphasized the dot-plots and in particular, the dramatic reduction in the anticipated path of the Fed funds target. We want to emphasize three points here. First, our understanding is that many Fed officials see the dot-plots as a largely failed experiment and would like to jettison them. However, this is easier said than done. Yellen herself has played down their importance.

Second, the past dot-plots exposed a large gap between them and market expectations reflected in OIS, Fed funds futures, and Eurodollar futures. It remained an open question how that gap was going to close. The evolution of the dot-plots last week showed Fed officials adjusted their views dramatically and brought them more in line with the market's expectations. The previous configuration of dot plots did not persuade the market of a hawkish tilt. We suspect that markets exaggerated the dovish signal in the dot plots.

Third, Yellen reiterated that the dot-plots are a function of individual forecasts. Of the skills necessary to become a regional Fed president, a robust ability to forecast the economy is not particularly salient. In December, there were a couple of regional Fed presidents that anticipated (i.e. wanted) the Fed to hike rates in March-April.

What has been lost on many observers is the change in personnel. Charles Plosser, the outspoken hawk who led the Philadelphia Fed, retired on March 1. His successor, Patrick Harker, a director of the Philadelphia Fed for the past three years, will assume the post as of July 1. He is perceived to be somewhat less hawkish and more in line with the Fed's leadership. At the March FOMC meeting (and at the June meeting as well) First Vice President D. Blake Prichard will temporarily take on the duties.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, another outspoken hawk, stepped down after last week's FOMC meeting. His successor has not been named. The First Vice President of the Dallas Fed, Helen Holcomb will serve in the interim until a successor is named. Previously Plosser and Fisher had advocated a hike in March/April. This is obviously not going to happen, and the forecasts had to be adjusted accordingly.

The fact that Q1 growth is tracking much lower than officials expected requires an adjustment to the forecasts for the entire year. This was the case last year as well after it become clear that the economy contracted in Q1. Yellen took great pains to stress that even with the downgrade of the Fed’s growth forecasts, it continues to expect growth to be above trend.

There is also much confusion about the Fed’s view of the dollar. Contrary to what some had expected, there was no mention of the dollar in the FOMC statement itself. Most of Yellen’s remarks about the dollar during the press conference were not instigated by the Chair, but by inquiring reporters, many of whom later wrote stories about the increased importance of the dollar in setting Fed policy.

Yellen accepted that the rise in the dollar was one of the factors that was slowing exports. Reporters did not press further: If the dollar was one of the factors, what were the others? If they had, we suspect Yellen would have explained that the IMF and World Bank had cut their forecasts for world growth. We think that the data bears out our contention that the best thing for US exports is stronger world growth.

Yellen also noted that the strength of the dollar was dampening inflation through import prices. Many participants completely ignored the rest of her comments about this, and in particular that this was a transitory development. Few reports covering the Fed thought it worth mentioning that Yellen acknowledged that the dollar’s appreciation was partly a reflection of the strength of the US economy.

We suggest that Yellen’s testimony before Congress in late February sheds light on Fed’s thinking. She indicated that the dampening impact of the rise of the dollar is broadly offset by the fall in oil prices. The claim that Yellen has waded into the so-called currencies wars is far from the mark. Indeed, we expect that the dollar will be stronger, not weaker, when the Fed raises interest rates. Vice Chairman Fischer’s speech to the Economics Club in New York on March 23 should be closely monitored. He is the first of the Fed’s leadership to speak since the FOMC meeting.

The US economy contracted in Q1 '14, and yet the Fed continued to taper. It stayed on course. Similarly, Q1 '15 growth is set to be disappointingly weak. Part of this is weather-related. Part of this is a function of the labor dispute in the West Coast ports. US consumption surged in Q4 (more than 4% annualized rate) and appeared to be pulling back in Q1.

We anticipate better economic data will be forthcoming in the months ahead. Next week’s economic data may be constructive (a tick up in CPI, an upward revision in Q4 GDP), but pales in comparison to the employment data in early April. In this context, we find Yellen’s comment, which was obscured by the doves' cry that rates are likely to rise before earnings growth accelerates, is particularly significant.

The modest uptick in euro area activity and in lending conditions we identified prior to the launch of the ECB’s sovereign bond buying program remains intact. The flash PMI and money supply reports will likely confirm this. The composite is expected to edge up from February 53.3 reading. Eurozone data has consistently surprised the market here in Q1, and we expect market expectations are being adjusted. Growth here in Q1 is likely 1.5%-1.75% at an annualized rate.

Financial conditions are also improving. Money supply growth is accelerating. Last February it was rising at an anemic 1.3% year-over-year pace. When reported on 26 March, the pace likely have accelerated to 4.3% from 4.1% in January (best in six years). Moreover, and with implications for the Targeted Long-Term Repo Operation (TLTRO), private sector lending is improving. After contracting for 2 ½ years, lending posted positive readings in December and January, and will likely extend for a third month.

Core banks appeared to participate more in the first two opportunities to tap the TLTRO facility last September (82.6 bln euros) and December (130 bln euros). However, banks in the periphery seemed to be more active participants in last week’s operation. Italian banks were thought to have taken down nearly a third of the 97.8 bln euros borrowed under the TLTRO offering. The overall take-down was at the high end of expectations.

There were two elections in the eurozone this weekend that may not have much immediate market impact, but will feed investors' anxiety about the political outlook. Spain's Andalusia holds a regional election. It is a stronghold for the Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) but Podemos can deny it an outright majority. France holds the first round of local elections and a strong showing by the National Front is expected. It has a candidate running in nearly every constituency, more than the main two parties (UMP and Socialists). The results will be known before the markets open on Monday.

The UK reports February inflation and retail sales. The year-over-year CPI is expected to fall closer to zero. The low CPI reading will follow the disappointing average earnings data and will reinforce the dovish tone of BOE Governor Carney and BOE Economist Haldine. The implied yield of the June 2016 short-sterling futures contract has fallen by more than 30 bp in the past two weeks to 90 bp as the pendulum of investor expectations pushes out a UK rate hike further. A constructive retail sales report (consensus forecast 0.4% after -0.3% in January) is unlikely to reverse this recent development.

There is a full slate of economic reports from Japan. These includes the preliminary March PMI, February unemployment, CPI and retail sales. On balance, the weak economic recovery that began in Q4 '14 is carrying over into the start of this year. Of note, several of the large auto companies are raising base wages and this will likely underpin overall household spending going forward. Retail sales are also expected to have recovered from the 1.9% decline in January (consensus forecast is for a 0.9% increase in February.

However, despite the aggressive easing of Japanese monetary policy, price pressures have not been rekindled. The core rate, which excludes fresh food, is expected to ease to 2.1% from 2.2%. When last April’s sales tax is excluded, as the BOJ does for its target, consumer prices are essentially flat on a year-over-year basis. The BOJ's Kuroda recently warned the market that CPI may be around zero for the next few months. He seems in no immediate hurry to expand the BOJ’s asset purchase.

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Iran rejects 'bullying' as West stresses unity in nuclear talks

LONDON (My.Princes) - Iran's top leader voiced mistrust on Saturday of U.S. efforts to reach a nuclear deal, even as Washington and its allies spoke of real progress and urged Tehran to take "difficult decisions".

With just 10 days remaining until an end-of-March deadline for a framework agreement, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced U.S. "bullying" in the negotiations and repeated Tehran's denial that it was seeking to develop a nuclear weapon.

After week-long talks with Iran in Switzerland, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry flew to London to confer with his counterparts from Britain, France and Germany on prospects for resolving the dispute, which goes back more than a decade and has threatened at times to unleash a new war in the Middle East.

In a joint statement, the foreign ministers said they agreed that "substantial progress" had been made with Iran in key areas, but some important issues remained outstanding.

"Now is the time for Iran, in particular, to take difficult decisions," they said.

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond told reporters the Western ministers were all in agreement that "we will not do a bad deal that does not meet our red lines".

Together with China and Russia, the four countries are trying to reach a deal with Tehran that would restrict the most sensitive aspects of Iran's atomic program in return for an easing of international sanctions.

U.S. ally Israel views Iran's nuclear activities as an existential threat, despite Tehran's strenuous denials that it wants to acquire nuclear weapons.

U.S. President Barack Obama said in an interview with the Huffington Post that Iran had not yet made the necessary concessions for a deal to get completed.

"What is going to have an effect on whether we get a deal done is, number one: is Iran prepared to show, to prove to the world, that it is not developing a nuclear weapon, and can we verify that in an intrusive, consistent way?" Obama said.

"And frankly, they have not yet made the kind of concessions that are I think going to be needed for a final deal to get done. But they have moved, and so there's the possibility," Obama added in the interview conducted on Friday and published on Saturday.

DURABLE SOLUTION

After 2-1/2 hours of talks in London, the Western ministers said in their joint statement: "Any solution must be comprehensive, durable and verifiable. None of our countries can subscribe to a deal that does not meet these terms."

The stress on unity seemed designed to counter the impression of a split between Washington and Paris.

U.S. officials have privately bristled at France's outspoken criticism of the negotiating process and its demands for more stringent restrictions on the Iranians. Officials have expressed concerns that the French might block a deal at the United Nations.

France's envoy to Washington, Gerard Araud, has been especially vocal, tweeting that setting a March 31 deadline for a framework deal was "a bad tactic" and "counterproductive". The target date for a full agreement is June 30.

The full six-power group is due to resume negotiations with Iran next week in Lausanne, Switzerland.

The West suspects Iran of seeking the ability to produce atomic weapons and the United Nations has imposed stringent economic sanctions on Tehran. Iran says its program is intended only for peaceful purposes, such as medical technology and nuclear energy, and wants the swift lifting of sanctions.

Iran's Khamenei, who has the last word on all matters of state, reiterated in a speech that Tehran would not be pressured into giving in to Western demands.

"What the Iranian people don't want is imposition and bullying from America," he said, at one point repeating the phrase "Death to America" after it was shouted from the crowd.

He accused Washington of seeking to foment instability in the Middle East.

"They raise the issue of an atomic bomb. They know themselves that we are not pursuing nuclear weapons. But they just use that as an excuse to pressure the Iranian people."

He criticized "arrogant" Western countries for what he said was their role in bringing about a halving of world oil prices that has squeezed Iran's economy.

"They insist on putting pressure on our dear people's economy. What's their goal? Their goal is to put the people against the system," he said.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had struck a more positive note earlier, saying there was "nothing that cannot be resolved".

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Obama says it is now 'hard to find a path'

WASHINGTON (My.Princes) - In a fresh rebuke to Benjamin Netanyahu, President Barack Obama said the Israeli leader's pre-election disavowal of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict makes it "hard to find a path" toward serious negotiations to resolve the issue.

In an interview with the Huffington Post, Obama also scolded Netanyahu over his remarks about Arab Israelis voting, making clear that the deep rift in relations between Israel and the United States, its most important ally, is not ending anytime soon.

In the interview, conducted on Friday and published on Saturday, Obama described his Thursday phone call with Netanyahu, two days after the Israeli leader was re-elected.

"I did indicate to him that we continue to believe that a two-state solution is the only way for the long-term security of Israel, if it wants to stay both a Jewish state and democratic," Obama said, in his first public comments on the issue.

"And I indicated to him that given his statements prior to the election, it is going to be hard to find a path where people are seriously believing that negotiations are possible."

The worst crisis in decades in U.S.-Israeli relations was worsened by Netanyahu's declaration just before Tuesday's election that there would be no Palestinian state on his watch. Netanyahu sought on Thursday to backtrack from that.

"Well, we take him at his word when he said that it wouldn't happen during his prime ministership, and so that's why we've got to evaluate what other options are available to make sure that we don't see a chaotic situation in the region," said Obama, whose administration sponsored failed talks aimed at creating a Palestinian state that would exist peacefully side-by-side with Israel.

The White House had said after Obama's call on Thursday that the president had told Netanyahu Washington would "reassess" its options on U.S.-Israel relations and Middle East diplomacy.

In the interview, Obama also expressed dismay over Netanyahu's Election Day warning to his supporters about Arab Israeli voters going to the polls "in droves."

"We indicated that that kind of rhetoric was contrary to what is the best of Israel's traditions, that although Israel was founded based on the historic Jewish homeland and the need to have a Jewish homeland, Israeli democracy has been premised on everybody in the country being treated equally and fairly," Obama said.

Obama underscored his support for Israel's security, saying he would make sure that military and intelligence cooperation continues in order to keep the Israeli people safe.

"But we are going to continue to insist that, from our point of view, the status quo is unsustainable. And that while taking into complete account Israel's security, we can't just in perpetuity maintain the status quo, expand settlements. That's not a recipe for stability in the region," Obama said, referring to the current state of affairs with the Palestinians.

The United States provides $3 billion in military aid annually.

Netanyahu's tense relations with Obama have been strained over U.S. efforts to reach an international agreement with Iran to curb Tehran's nuclear program. Ties worsened when Netanyahu accepted a Republican invitation to speak to the U.S. Congress two weeks before the Israeli election to criticize Obama's quest for such a deal. Democrats assailed the speech as an insult to the presidency and a breach of protocol.

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The Fed dropped a reference to being "patient"

Euro (Princes)-- The dollar pushed broadly lower against a basket of other major currencies on Friday, as risk sentiment improved amid fresh hopes for progress on the Greek debt front, while the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement continued to weigh on the greenback.

The dollar remained fragile after the Fed indicated on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth has moderated and that interest rates will rise at a slower pace than previously forecast.

The Fed dropped a reference to being "patient" on the timing of rate hikes, but added that the change in its forward guidance did not mean it has decided on the timing for an initial rate increase.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.91% to 98.54.

The euro extended earlier gains, with EUR/USD up 1.96% to 1.0850.

The single currency found support after the European Commission said it made $2 billion of unused funds available to Greece to help the country avert a cash crunch.

The announcement came after Greek authorities said they were moving towards meeting the requirements of international creditors on a more detailed reform plan in order to secure the additional bailout funds required to prevent the country's bankruptcy.

European Union officials were set to continue discussions on the Greek bailout throughout the day.

The pound also gained ground, with GBP/USD advancing 0.83% to 1.4876.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics earlier reported that public sector net borrowing rose by £6.22 billion in February, less than the expected increase of £7.70 billion. January's figure was revised to a £8.93 billion drop from a previously estimated decline of £9.41 billion.

Elsewhere, the dollar turned lower against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY easing 0.09% to 120.70 and with USD/CHF tumbling 1.24% to 0.9778.

The minutes of the Bank of Japan's most recent policy meeting earlier showed that government dropped their calls to hit the bank's inflation target "at the earliest date possible," signaling to the BoJ that it shouldn't rush in accelerating inflation through expanding stimulus measures further.

Meanwhile, the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars pushed broadly higher, with AUD/USD climbing 1.12% to 0.7736 and NZD/USD rallying 1.34% to 0.7514, while USD/CAD dropped 0.86% to 1.2607.

Statistics Canada said on Friday that retail sales dropped 1.7% in January, compared to expectations for a 0.7% fall, while core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, declined 1.8% in January, exceeding the expected 0.4% slip.

In a separate report, Statistics Canada said that consumer prices rose 0.9% last month, more than the expected 0.7% increase, while core consumer prices, which exclude the eight most volatile items, advanced 0.6% in February, compared to expectations for a 0.5% rise.

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EU tells Greece time, patience running out

BRUSSELS/BERLIN (Princes) - Euro zone leaders told Greece on Thursday its leftist-led government must implement agreed reforms to avert a looming cash crunch that could force it out of the single currency.

Greece has been kept from bankruptcy by two international bailouts but now risks running out of money within weeks if it does not receive more funds. Greek banks reported the largest deposit withdrawals in a month, a sign savers are worried about the outlook for the country's finances and institutions.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras requested a meeting with the leaders of Germany, France and the main EU institutions on the sidelines of a European Union summit to press for Athens to receive short-term funds to keep itself afloat.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel doused any expectation of a deal at the late-night session, saying decisions were up to the Eurogroup of finance ministers of the 19-nation euro area.

"I want to say: don't expect a solution, don't expect a breakthrough. It's not the right setting," she told reporters on arrival at the summit. "Decisions are made in the Eurogroup and that's how it will remain."

French President Francois Hollande said the message to Tsipras would be that all sides must stick to their commitments.

The chairman of euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, told reporters they would merely "take stock of the progress being made, which seems to be small...

"Time is ticking away, so we don't have a lot of time," he said. "So we have really got to get to work."

A person familiar with ECB thinking said European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would make clear the bank would not lift its limit on Greek short-term debt issuance, which Greece's finance minister has said is "asphyxiating" his country.

"It's up to Greece to meet its commitments in order to get money from its creditors," said the person. "The ECB doesn't do bridge finance."

Tsipras did not respond to questions about his country's funding problems, saying only: "The EU needs more political initiatives that respect both democracy and its treaties so that we leave behind the crisis and move to growth."

A Greek official said Athens had enough cash to pay a final 350 million euro installment of a loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund on Friday.Merkel earlier told the German parliament in Berlin the crisis could only be resolved if Greece stuck to reform commitments it made when it agreed with the euro zone on a four-month extension of its bailout program.

A political meeting of a small group of leaders could not be used to circumvent the formal agreement Greece concluded on Feb. 20 with the Eurogroup, she told the lawmakers.

"There remains a very tough way ahead," Merkel said. Greece must understand that international aid brought with it an obligation "to reform its budget and work towards one day no longer needing help".

European Council President Donald Tusk, chairing the summit, said he arranged a side-meeting with Tsipras to take the heat out of exchanges around the table. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel said he would complain about the private session among a few players. "It's a bad method," he said. Luxembourg's Xavier Bettel said he would have liked to have been present.

Tusk met the Benelux leaders to defuse their irritation, promising that no decision would be taken behind their backs. He asked whether any leader wanted a full euro zone summit on Greece but no one took him on the offer, an aide said.

Two EU/IMF bailouts totaling 240 billion euros have kept Greece from bankruptcy since 2010 but its economy has shrunk by 25 percent, partly due to austerity measures imposed by the lenders. It risks running out of cash without more aid or permission to issue more short-term debt.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has been trying to build bridges between Tsipras and Greece's creditors. His exasperated tone suggested even Athens' friends are losing patience with its belligerent rhetoric and procrastination.

EU sources said Greece had refused to provide any update on public finances or reform plans in a conference call of senior euro zone officials on Tuesday and had denied EU, IMF and European Central Bank experts access to government buildings in Athens, insisting all meetings take place in a hotel.

The discussions had not gone beyond procedural issues of who would be allowed to talk to whom, the sources said.

Asked whether the experts had been kicked out, an EU official said: "The talks in Athens were paused yesterday. This is normal procedure and can be helpful to take stock. There is willingness to talk but the Greeks must deliver."

"LIQUIDITY PROBLEM"

Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis, in a television talk show early on Thursday, accused the creditors' team of exceeding their authority.

"The technical teams came to collect facts, but they then requested things which went beyond their jurisdiction. For example, they wanted to review the government as a whole, every ministry's program and the reforms," he told Alpha TV.

Dragasakis acknowledged Greece faced a liquidity problem and needed the cooperation of its European lenders to keep paying salaries, pensions and debt repayments: "We haven't received any (bailout) tranches since August 2014 but we have been meeting all of our obligations," he said. "This has its limits."

The ECB agreed late on Wednesday to raise the limit on emergency lending to Greek banks by 400 million euros to 69.8 billion, banking sources said. Bankers said savers withdrew about 300 million euros in deposits on Wednesday.

Greece has asked to receive some 1.9 billion euros in ECB profits on Greek bond holdings, which finance ministers have linked to progress in implementing the program. It also wants ECB permission to issue more short-term treasury bills, which only Greek banks are willing to buy.

Tsipras' Syriza party won a general election in January on a platform of scrapping the bailouts, ending austerity and refusing to cooperate with the "troika" of institutions -- EU, ECB and IMF -- supervising its rescue program.

The prime minister lambasted EU "technocrats" on Wednesday for demanding prior consultations on the cost of a "humanitarian bill" adopted by parliament to provide food stamps and free electricity to the poorest Greeks worst hit by austerity.

Athens has made no move in the month since the Brussels agreement to bring forward legislation to meet its commitments under the bailout agreement.

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Wall Street climbs on Nike

(Princes)-- U.S. stocks rose on Friday, lifted by results from Nike and another climb in biotechs, as investors assessed the impact of a stronger dollar on corporate earnings.

Dow component Nike (N:NKE) jumped 3.7 percent to $101.95 after it posted a quarterly profit that beat market estimates. The world's largest sportswear maker sold more higher margin shoes and apparel, but warned that the stronger dollar would take a toll on its current quarter.

"There is a tug-of-war going on between current valuations in our market and a lot of bad news being priced into a strong dollar, with no good news being priced into a strong dollar," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York.

"We are taking the multinationals out to the woodshed and not moving consumer names higher."

Biotechs were on track for their eighth straight advance, powered by a 6.6 percent climb in Biogen Idec (O:BIIB) to $466.07. The company said its experimental drug became the first Alzheimer's treatment to significantly slow cognitive decline and reduce brain plaque in patients with early and mild forms of the disease, according to a small study. The Nasdaq biotech index has gained 8 percent since March 10.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) rose 140 points, or 0.78 percent, to 18,099.03, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 14.17 points, or 0.68 percent, to 2,103.44 and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 34.90 points, or 0.7 percent, to 5,027.28.

The market may see heightened volatility heading into the close as a result of quadruple witching - the expiration of stock options, index options, index futures and single-stock futures.

Olive Garden owner Darden Restaurants (N:DRI) reported a quarterly profit above analysts' estimates due to cost-cutting and better-than-expected sales at its chains such as LongHorn Steakhouse and Yard House. Its shares climbed 3 percent to $66.80.

But Tiffany & Co. (N:TIF) shares lost 3.2 percent to $83.63 after the upscale jeweler reported quarterly sales fell for the first time in five years and are expected to decline further in the current quarter, hurt by the strong dollar.

The dollar (DXY) was off 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies and was on track for its first weekly decline in five. [USD/]

Simon Property Group (N:SPG), the No.1 U.S. mall owner, raised its offer for Macerich Co (N:MAC) three days after its smaller rival rejected its earlier offer, adopted a poison pill and changed board structure to prevent a hostile takeover. Simon Property advanced 1.1 percent to $194.16 while Macerich lost 7.6 percent to $86.38.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 2,268 to 482, for a 4.71-to-1 ratio; on the Nasdaq, 1,682 issues rose and 642 fell for a 2.62-to-1 ratio favoring advancers.

The benchmark S&P 500 index was posting 52 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite was recording 130 new highs and 7 new lows.

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Indonesian women was Beautiful Outside In

Miss World 2014 Rolene Strauss will enliven the evening peak of Miss Indonesia 2015 in Hall D2, JI-Expo Kemayoran, Jakarta, Monday night, February 16th, 2015 at 20:30 pm. Women from South Africa it was very keen to visit Indonesia.

As Miss World, Rolene Strauss must have criteria for Miss Indonesia 2015 SINDOnews specifically interviewed Miss World 2014 Rolene Strauss in Lamoda Cafe, Plaza Indonesia, Jakarta.

What is the first visit of Miss World?
Do Not. This is the second visit of Miss World. Specials my second visit. The first time we visited China. This is the second visit.

What lesson do you gain from the visit of Miss World?
Yes, this is my second visit and I do a lot of things. I will remember this will be a very long condition. But I would enjoy this trip. Meet different people, different cultures, and culture of Indonesia. Love Indonesian food and I will be a lot to learn a lot of things and I will make the changes.

What do you think about Jakarta?
Jakarta was beautiful. I will think of and remember continue every week. At the moment in the car-free days a week, all the way to happy with a relaxed and I was shocked. I really like the food and it was so amazing.

Criteria to be Miss Indonesia 2015?
Criteria for the Miss World and Miss Indonesia are very similar. Must be friendly to everyone. Should warm to everyone and receive any. should be proud of their own country. Because you do not just bring yourselves but your country as well and to win in London, he was alone. So it must be present, do the best. Because all assessing Indonesia. I thought it was and should bring the good name of the State. State must love and sharing.

Experience in the Miss World competition?
The best for me in the Miss World competition is women who are very beautiful in various countries. Beautiful women from 121 different countries come together, do not know from a different country, do not know anything, bring a lot of people from different countries, meet each other. we know each other. Equally help, both became friends.

Expectations for the Final of Miss Indonesia 2105?
I will look at the results and see the video, Maria has been demonstrated, and I really like. And I was amazed, all in favor of Indonesia. This country is very loved and was amazed, seeing all the support Miss Indonesia to the success of the country is.

What do you think about women in Indonesia?
I think women in Indonesia was beautiful inside and every state has specific criteria. When I met Maria (Maria Asteria Sastrayu Rahajeng, Miss Indonesia 2014), I saw him a formidable female figure and survive. I admire his personality as a woman.

What about Indonesian food?
He, yesterday after lunch, I ate fried goat and many cabainya, spicy, and I love it.

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Maria Harfanti So Pedestal Indonesia in Miss World

Chairwoman of the Miss Indonesia Organization, Liliana Tanoesoedibjo congratulate him on the election of Maria Harfanti as Miss Indonesia 2015, replacing Mary Rahajeng. According to him, Maria Harfanti is a formidable figure and have the talent so right won the crown of Miss Indonesia 2015.

"We are grateful tonight to get Miss Indonesia 2015, Maria was a formidable figure, and he is the figure has a great talent from the show, he has a good public speaking," said Liliana after attending the final night of Miss Indonesia 2015 in Jakarta, Monday (16/2 ) night.

Liliana hopeful to Mary Harfanti to be able to contribute fully in the Miss World 2015, and capable of the name of Indonesia on the world stage. "Miss World 2015 to be better than in previous years. I hope filled with Mary. I believe what he had, and Maria dipunya talent that can contribute in Miss World 2015," he said.

Earlier, Maria Harfanti, which is representative of the Special Region (DI) Yogyakarta, won the crown of Miss Indonesia 2015, after beating 33 other finalists. Meanwhile, representatives of North Sumatra, Savina Wibowo seize the first runner-up, and Yona Miagan of Papua won the second runner-up.

Questions to Maria Harfanti about creating programs for the community over domestic product love him as champion. Maria Harfanti won the crown of Miss Indonesia 2015 previously worn by Miss Indonesia 2014 Maria Rahajeng.

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Ways to Show Some Love to Your Community

Valentine's Day is just around the corner! While it's normally thought of as the holiday for couples, and the chocolate, floral, and greeting card industries, it's also the perfect time to “show some love” to your community of customers and clients. But why stop at Valentine's Day when you can show your appreciation and support of your community year-round with the following simple strategies.

1. Do business with them as their customer. One way I support my retail clients is by purchasing gifts for my other (non-competing) clients. If your client is a service provider, there may still be an opportunity to purchase a gift certificate or card from them to give to others. Be creative in thinking about how you can become a customer of theirs.
2. Actively participate in their community. Subscribe to their newsletters or blog, follow them on social media channels, and actively participate in online conversations with them. Post comments to their blog,Like, Share, or Comment on their Facebook posts, re-Tweet on Twitter or re-Pin on Pinterest.
3. Share them with your community. Feature a “customer of the week” or “client of the quarter” post or story in your own newsletter, blog, or on your Facebook business page. People LOVE photos, so put a face to the customer post or client story with a photo of them (with their permission, of course).
4. Provide referrals. We all know the value of word-of-mouth so keep your customer/client radar tuned up for any opportunity to send business their way. PS – make sure you know what a good referral is for their business, too.
5. Host a customer/client appreciation event. This will involve a little more cost and time, but it’s a great way to bring your customers or clients together for a social, luncheon or after hours with the only intention being to thank them for their support and business. Make the event extra special by mailing (yes, mailing) invitations to attendees. There’s a bonus to this, too, in that you can be a “connector,” introducing folks who might not otherwise meet to expand their social or business circle.

And remember that you don't have to wait for Valentine's Day or any other holiday to "show some love" to your community. It's easy to do each and every day with a sincere smile and 'thank you.'

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Lebanese Porn Star Stirs Debate Back Home

A Lebanese-born porn star living in the US has stirred fierce debate back home after her rise to fame split social media users in liberal-yet-conservative Lebanon.

Mia Khalifa, 21, who was born in Lebanon but lives in Miami, last week became the most searched star on adult video site Porn Hub, with more than 1.5 million views, prompting a mix of scorn and praise from Lebanese commenters.

“You are unworthy. You are only a sex object,” posted one Facebook user, alongside an image of the half-naked Khalifa.

“You don’t represent Lebanon!” another commenter said on Twitter, where the buxom brunette actress has attracted more than 78,000 followers.

Others lept to Khalifa’s defense, albeit with reservations.

“Mia Khalifa hasn’t harmed anyone. It’s her body,” said a post on the Lebanese blog Philaz. But “we are also free to say that what she is doing isn’t ‘liberalism’ but an attack on freedom.” 

“You have to admire Mia Khalifa for her audacity,” wrote a Twitter user.

And stand up comedian Nemer Abou Nassar tweeted: “Mia we love you! i hope to high five you soon one day.”

Although renowned for its nightlife, smouldering female pop stars and legal alcohol consumption unlike most other Arab states, parts of Lebanese society remain deeply conservative.

Last year, Lebanese Olympic skier Jackie Chamoun found herself at the center of a scandal after a video emerged of her taking part in a topless photo shoot, shocking many but also sparking online expressions of support.

Several photos posted online of Khalifa appear to show the actress sporting a tattoo on her left arm of a verse from the Lebanese national anthem.

“Lebanon has always been a pioneer among Arab countries,” a commentator said.

In a country more used to bad news, including a deteriorating security situation due to the conflict in neighboring Syria, viewers were greeted with images of Khalifa on national television bulletins.

“Mia Khalifa is the first Lebanese who publicly boasts of practicing such a profession,” said local news station Al Jadeed.

Lebanon has struggled to deal with a mass influx of refugees from the war in Syria and 25 of its soldiers and police are being held captive by jihadists.

Several commentators even chose to play on the names of Khalifa (caliph in Arabic) and self-proclaimed caliph of the Islamic State jihadist group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

“Who do you prefer as caliph? Mia or Al-Baghdadi? I prefer Mia Khalifa!” said one Lebanese Twitter user.

Agence France-Presse

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News Live Air Asia Flight QZ8501 Day's 8

Singapore___  Search and recovery for AirAsia flight QZ8501 continues today (Jan 3). Inclement weather has so far posed challenges to recovery efforts.

The flight carrying 162 people from the Indonesian city of Surabaya to Singapore lost contact with air traffic control on Dec 28. The plane was due to arrive in Singapore at 8.30am. Stay tuned for live updates. 

For earlier posts on the search for QZ8501,

Refresh this page for updates. All timings are in Singapore time.

Jan 4:

11pm:  Here's a round up of the search and rescue efforts from today (Jan 4)

- A total of 34 bodies have been recovered so far
- Five large underwater object believed to be part of plane detected
- Diving operations suspended due to bad weather
- No "pings" detected from black box
- Indonesian meteorological bureau says weather was "worrying" on day of crash

8.30pm: BASARNAS chiefs is holding a press conference. Here are the key points:

- Debris found indicates body of plane broken. All efforts will be focused on finding the tail where the Black Box is located. 

- Black box of QZ8501 should not be far from where 5 big objects were spotted

- Bad weather hampered search efforts today. Better weather is expected tomorrow. 

7pm: Search and rescue personnel at Pangkalan Bun airport carry away aircraft debris delivered by the Republic of Singapore Air Force Super Puma. 

6.30pm: A Republic of Singapore Air Force Super Puma helicopter lands in Pangkalan Bun, delivering one body and two bags of debris. The body and debris were found by Singapore naval vessel RSS Persistence.

5.45pm: VIDEO: 3 more bodies were recovered this afternoon and were brought in by a US Navy helicopter. Here rescue personnel collect the bodies from the helicopter. 

4pm: Three more bodies have been identified as Indonesians according to authorities, namely:

- AirAsia flight attendant Wismoyo Ari Prambudi (24 years old)
- Jie Stevie Gunawan (10 years old)
- Juanita Limantara (30 years old).

The body count now stands at 34. The press conference took place at the crisis centre in Surabaya.

3.15pm: Here's a look on board the Russian Beriev Be-200 amphibious aircraft, which is part of a multi-national task force of ships, planes and helicopters to recover the bodies of victims and locate the wreck of the passenger plane.

Divers, including members of the Russian contingent were sent to investigate the debris early on Sunday, but diving had since been suspended due to bad weather. The total bodies recovered now stands at 31. 

2.31pm: From our reporter on board the MV Swift Rescue: The vessel commenced search in a new sector today as of 2.45am, after completing its last search sector. Visibility in the new sector is about 1 nautical mile and the sea state and weather remains unfavourable for underwater search operation.

1.59pm: Our reporter on the ground takes a photo of items, believed to be from the wreckage of AirAsia flight QZ8501. The handover of items between the RSS Valour and the MV Swift Rescue took place at 1.15am (Singapore time) today. The items include an adult life jacket and 3 personal items, and will be handed to Indonesian authorities. The RSS Valour will be heading back to Singapore.

12.30pm: Press conference with rescue agency, BASARNAS, begins. Highlights:

- Part of search and rescue operation has moved east for a more specific operation
- 2 divers sent down this morning were brought back up due to poor visibility, safety concerns; current at 2-5 knots.
- 9 vessels currently at area where 4 objects were found; Indonesia (3), US (2), Malaysia (2) and Singapore (2).
- Finding of black box is not rescue agency’s responsibilty; merely assisting investigation team with their vessel.
- Only one more body found can be confirmed but three more bodies awaiting evacuation.

12.20pm: One body recovered by Singapore’s RSS Persistence vessel, to be evacuated by a Super Puma helicopter, reports Channel NewsAsia.

12.06pm: 3 bodies spotted; not far from each other, says pilot of search aircraft speaking to MetroTV

11.08am: About 90 divers from Indonesia and Russia deployed to recover more bodies.

9.24am: Indonesia's KRI Usman Harun, a subject of controversy between Singapore and Indonesia, has set out for search and rescue operations today, reports local media.

8.00am: Units out at sea for search and rescue operations today

Indonesia
17 helicopters
10 aircrafts
57 ships

Malaysia
1 aircraft
3 ships

Singapore
2 helicopters
2 aircrafts
5 ships

South Korea
1 aircraft

USA
2 helicopters
2 ships

Russia
2 aircrafts

Source: MetroTV

7.50am: Map showing new sectors for search & allocation of assets in day 8. Singapore's RSS Supreme is assigned to "Most Probable Area" sector while the RSS Persistence & MV Swift Rescue at "Underwater Search Area".

Jan 3: 

10pm: Here's a round up of the search and rescue efforts from today (Jan 3): 

- Remote underwater vehicles were unable to get images of objects
- Indonesia suspends airline's Surabaya-Singapore licence
- Airline's other flight schedules are now under scrutiny
- Meteorological bureau says weather a factor in crash
- Black box flight recorders not yet found

9.02pm: Commander of the Indonesian Armed Forces tweets an update.

8.59pm: Four large objects have been located in the Java Sea by search and rescue teams.

8.36pm: RSS Valour is making her way back to Singapore, after being deployed for about a week, according to the Republic of Singapore Navy. 

Five RSN ships have been deployed for the search operation - a frigate RSS Supreme, missile corvette RSS Valour and landing ship tank RSS Persistence for surface search, a mine countermeasure vessel RSS Kallang, MV Swift Rescue, as well as an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) team to conduct underwater search.

8pm: Air Asia has released a statement. Here are the key points: 

- The search process is still underway with the Russian SAR team joining the mission, strengthening the operation led by BASARNAS. 

- To date, Disaster Victim Identification Police Department of Republic of Indonesia (DVI POLRI) has identified a total of six passengers while the 24 remaining bodies are still being identified. DVI POLRI also confirms that the remains identification process will be supported by DVI experts from Singapore and South Korea.

- Weather in the SAR area for tomorrow (Jan 4) is forecast to be much better with waves likely to decrease and remain at 2-3m. 

7pm: Air Asia Indonesia had approval to run daily flights from Surabaya to Singapore, even though the airline had flown on Sundays without authorisation from Indonesian authorities, CAAS and Changi Airport Group confirm.

5pm: A Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) team comprising six officers from the Singapore Police Force (SPF) and two forensic experts from the Health Sciences Authority (HSA) departed today for Surabaya to assist Indonesia in identifying victims of the crash, according to Home Team News. 

4.46pm: A Russian amphibious plane has landed in Pangkalan Bun to assist in search and rescue operations. 

4.45pm: Two more passengers - Hendra Gunawan Syawal (male) and The Meiji Thejakusuma (female) - have been identified by the Disaster Victim Identification Police Department of Republic of Indonesia (DVI POLRI).

4.10pm: LIVE update from the search area: US naval vessel USS Sampson is seen here together with its search helicopter, spotted near the operating area of MV Swift Rescue in the southern coast of Borneo, Jan 3 2015.

4.02pm: LIVE update from the search area: (L-R) Underwater Telephony Specialists ME3 Eric Chua, 38 and ME3 Marcus Chua, 37, are hoping to receive signals emitted from the black box of the missing AirAsia aircraft in the Underwater Telephony Operation Room on board the MV Swift Rescue. Together with a team, they have been working around the clock over the past 3 days in designated search areas in the southern coast of Borneo, Jan 3 2015.

4pm:  Evacuation efforts have sped up thanks to fair weather on the seas. There are now 60 ships taking part in the search efforts. As of 2pm, a total of 30 bodies have been recovered and flown to Surabaya for identification. 

3pm: 12 bodies flown from Pangkalan Bun to Surabaya have arrived and are taken to hospital for identification.

1.25pm: 12 bodies, 9 male and 3 female, flown to Surabaya.

11.49am:  7 more bodies have arrived via helicopter at Pangkalan Bun from an Indonesian search ship. One more body being evacuated from a Malaysian ship.

10.40am: Disaster victim investigation unit have received 161 ante mortem DNA samples while 138 DNA samples submitted from family members for identification.

10.28am: Rescue chief says 2 huge objects found by detection ships beside each other, 30 metres underwater.

10:00am:  18 bodies already at Surabaya hospital, 12 more on the way: Indonesia navy commander.

8.50am: Sea in search area still rough with waves reaching a height of 4 metres. Visibility 8 nautical miles, wind speed 20 - 30 knots, says Malaysia's chief of navy.

8.30am: Underwater search area with dimension of 57x10 nautical miles established. Five ships are tasked, says Malaysia's chief of navy.

8.20am: Today’s operation will include focus on finding main aircraft body and location of black box, reports MetroTV, citing rescue agency officials.

7.45am: The search and rescue mission continues at daybreak.

Jan 2:

7.26pm: Press conference from BASARNAS now underway. Key points:

- 30 bodies recovered, confirmed BASARNAS. 8 bodies are already in Surabaya, 10 are en route, 4 are in Pangkalan Bun, 7 are on board Indonesian navy vessel KRI Bung Tomo and 1 is on board Malaysian navy ship KD Pahang.

- An Indonesian ocean going tugboat will be entering the search area tonight.

- Fuel tankers are also heading to the search area to help refuel operational ships.

- Waves reached up to 5m today, making operations difficult.

6.40pm: The tail of QZ8501 has been sighted, according to the Commander of Indonesia's navy ship KRI Bung Tomo to Metro TV.

6.21pm: A Korean P-3 Orion has spotted 3 bodies still strapped to a row of seats, as well as 3 other bodies at 3 different locations, reports Detik.

6.06pm: 5th Singapore navy vessel RSS Kallang arrives at search area. To date, Singapore has contributed more than 400 SAF personnel, two C-130 aircraft, two Super Puma helicopters, five navy ships and a 6-man Autonomous Underwater Vehicle team to aid the search.

6.00pm: Singapore naval vessel RSS Supreme today recovered what is believed to be a window panel of the AirAsia jet. 

4.55pm: AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes to fly body of stewardess Khairunisa Haidar home.

4.39pm: Two Russian planes with 72 rescue personnel on board have arrived in Indonesia to assist the search, reports RT.com. The Russian planes are reportedly carrying sonars, diving equipment and drones to search the area where there may be a missing plane.

4.24pm: 

A Basarnas rescue ship, KN SAR 224, docked at Pangkalan Bun's Kumai port this afternoon after searching the waters 80 to 100 nautical miles from the Kalimantan coast. However, the ship did not find any new bodies today.
Captain Ahmad, who commands the ship, said waves are still high, at 3m to 4m, but visibility is now clear.
His message to families of crash victims hoping to see the bodies of their loved ones again: "We will be searching and searching, until we find it."

3.40pm: Three more bodies identified by the police as Grayson Herbert Linaksita, Kevin Soetjipto, and stewardess Khairunnisa Haidar.

3.00pm: RSS Valour recovers luggage bag at search site. Item has been delivered to Indonesian authorities, says Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen.

2.25pm: Four more bodies have arrived at Pangkala Bun. Photo: Channel NewsAsia

12.39pm: Captain Rangga Mahardhika, a chief engineer on board one of the marine police boats, said that high waves, cloudy skies and muddy coastal waters complicate the search. His ship uses sonar to detect submerged debris and bodies. Upon finding a suepect body or plane part, divers will be deployed to retrieve them.

11.30am: An international team armed with acoustic equipment - comprising personel from Singapore, Malaysia, the U.S. and France - have arrived to bolster the search for the plane's black box flight recorders.

9.52am: Two more bodies and some debris have arrived at Pangkala Bun airport via helicopter. 16 bodies have been found thus far, with 10 already brought to land, reports Indonesian National Search and Rescue Agency.

9.42am: Another seven bodies are said to be found: 1 by Malaysian navy, 6 by the US.

9.30am: The search zone has moved 30 nautical miles from yesterday. An area covering 1,575 nautical miles was established by the Malaysian navy chief as the "most probably area" where wreckage will be found.

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