Should You Be Buying Dollars Here?

Should You Be Buying Dollars Here?
ECB Sends EURO On Rollercoaster Ride
USD/CAD Melts Down On BoC and Oil
NZD: Prices Fall 3% at Latest Dairy Auction
AUD Shakes Off Disappointing Chinese Data, Employment Next
Sterling Lifted by Dollar Weakness

Another round of weaker U.S. economic reports drove the dollar sharply lower against all of the major currencies Wednesday. In the past 48 hours, the sentiment in the market has changed significantly with investors now worried that the dollar has peaked. If one thing could change the Fed’s mind about raising interest rates, it would be that economic data and recent reports do not support the case for tightening. Wednesday morning we learned that manufacturing activity in the NY region contracted and that industrial production declined. Earlier in the week, retail sales fell short of expectations. Is that enough for the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates this year? No. According to the Beige Book, the economy continued to expand in most regions between the middle of February and the end of March. Economic activity grew at a moderate pace with stable or modest improvements in the labor market. So if the outlook for monetary policy has not changed, the next question to ask is whether it's a good time to buy dollars. From a long-term perspective we still like buying U.S. dollars, especially since the risk of U.K. election uncertainty and the possibility of a rate hike by the RBA has not been removed. But as mentioned in yesterday’s note, EUR/USD could test 1.08 and USD/JPY could drop to 118.25 before that happens. So while you could buy dollars here, you may have the opportunity to do so at a better price later. Housing starts, building permits and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are scheduled for release Thursday. These second-tier reports are not expected to have a lasting impact on the dollar.

ECB Sends EURO On Rollercoaster Ride

The most exciting part of Wednesday’s European Central Bank meeting was that a political activist jumped on the table in front of Draghi waving her hands and calling for an end to the “ECB dick-tatorship.” No one was hurt, the disruption lasted minutes and the central bank President quickly resumed his press conference. Earlier in the morning, the ECB left monetary policy unchanged and at the conference that followed, Mario Draghi expressed his satisfaction with the smooth implementation of QE and the effectiveness of the program thus far. The tone of the press conference was decidedly more upbeat with the ECB head saying that the recovery is broadening and strengthening. These improvements diminished the economic risks and moves the economy in the right direction. Draghi ruled out a rate cut and instead said that the central bank can adjust QE if needed. European policymakers are happy with how Quantitative Easing is working and this optimism helped to stem the slide in EUR/USD. While a further short squeeze could drive EUR/USD higher, negative rates in Germany should cap the gains in the currency pair. S&P also downgraded Greece on Wednesday to CCC+/C with a negative outlook. While Mario Draghi does not believe that Greece’s problems will harm the world economy, negative headlines could still affect the currency.

USD/CAD Melts Down On BoC and Oil

The worst-performing currency pair Wednesday was USD/CAD, which fell sharply on the back of a less dovish Bank of Canada monetary policy statement, weaker U.S. data and higher oil prices. The BoC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely anticipated but having just warned about an atrocious quarter, few expected the air of optimism. While the central bank lowered its Q1 and 2015 GDP forecasts, they raised their outlook for 2016 growth. Most importantly, they upgraded their assessment of inflation by saying that the risks are now roughly balanced. The central bank expects the economy to reach its full capacity next year with conditions expected to improve in the second half of 2015. Not only did Governor Poloz say that he is looking past the oil impact on inflation but he also recognized the improvements in the labor market and said he expects a soft landing in housing. In other words, a rate cut is now off the table. Between their less dovish tone and the 5% rally in oil prices, USD/CAD dropped to its lowest level in 2 months. Further losses are likely with no support until the 100-day SMA near 1.22. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also performed extremely well despite disappointing Chinese data. GDP growth met the government’s 7% forecast but industrial production and retail-sales growth slowed significantly. Dairy prices fell for the third auction in a row but the 3.6% decline was far more modest than the 10% drop at the last auction. Wednesday night’s Australian employment report could take some of the focus off the U.S. dollar. Weaker numbers would remind investors of the challenges that Australia’s economy faces and the serious risk of a rate cut by the RBA next month
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Sterling Lifted by Dollar Weakness

The British pound traded higher versus the U.S. dollar and euro but with no U.K. economic data on the calendar, the moves were driven entirely by the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars and in a very small part, euros. Sterling has now rallied against the greenback for 3 straight days and we don’t expect the moves to last. The U.K. general election is 3 weeks away and its impact on the British pound will be significant. This general election is filled with uncertainty and sterling has been under pressure because of the fear that the Conservative Party will fail to win enough seats. We expect the British pound to fall further in the weeks ahead with GBP/USD falling to a fresh 4-year low after the election. What makes this year’s election different from 2010 is the potential power grab by smaller parties that could lead to more difficulty in forming a coalition. If this leads to a hung parliament, it will translate into more losses for the currency. Sterling 3 month option volatiles are at a 3-year high but could rise even further as it did in 2010. Five years ago volatility jumped to 17% in the days after the election and not only did GBP/USD fall 400 pips on election day, but it dropped another 500 pips in the 2 weeks that followed.

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Luxury Vehicle Report: BMW 640i

There are few premium car manufacturers in the world that can compete with the so-called “German Big Three” in terms of the all around performance of their vehicles, not to mention appearance and luxury.  The “German Big Three” includes, of course, Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW.  Founded in Munich, Germany in 1916, BMW was initially created to manufacture aircrafts.  After the conclusion of World War I, BMW began to expand its horizons, creating motorcycles and automobiles in the 1920s.  For the last 85 plus years, BMW has all but perfected the art of luxury automobile manufacturing.

One of the triumphs of BMW as of the last several years is the second generation of the 6 series.  After the success of the first generation of the 6 series, the expectations for the second generation were high, and BMW did not disappoint.  With the series introduced in 2010, production began in 2011.  Over the last few years, the cars that belong to the 6 series family of vehicles have impressed to say the least.


Next to 6 series highlights the M6, and big brother the 650i, the 640i is one of the most impressive vehicles to come out of the current generation thus far.  While its engine may not produce the same power as the 650i, the BMW 640i is equally as luxurious, to be sure.


The BMW 640i has 315 horsepower, which is respectable, but the increase to the 650i’s 445 horsepower is going to be difficult to turn down for potential buyers.  The engine of the 640i is a 3 liter BMW-made twin turbo V8, which is capable not only of producing a substantial amount of horsepower, but also 330 ft-lbs of torque at the car’s ideal rpm.


The 8 speed sports automatic transmission allows the car to be almost impossibly smooth to drive, as well.  This system allows the driver to go from a stopped position to 60 miles per hour in 5.2 seconds, which is rather impressive for a four door luxury vehicle.  The car’s top speed is 155 miles per hour, which the car can reach with startling ease.


While the 650i’s performance numbers are more impressive than the 640i’s, the 640i’s luxurious accommodations and incredibly smooth drive should be more than enough for a laid back luxury vehicle owner not looking to win any drag races.  With all the luxuries that have come to be expected from BMW, this car would no doubt be a joy to own.  The most affordable member of the 6 series family of vehicles, the BMW 640i has a base price of $75,400.

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Indonesian court to decide on Bali Nine execution appeal on April 6

An Indonesian court hearing the appeals of two Australian death row convicts will announce a verdict on April 6, one of the judges determining the case said on Wednesday.

Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan are among a group of 10 prisoners, mostly foreigners, facing imminent execution for drug offenses after President Joko Widodo rejected their pleas for clemency.

"Both sides have been given ample opportunity to present evidence and testimony," Ujang Abdullah, one of a panel of three judges, told the court. "The judges will decide on the case after studying the evidence submitted.

The court was adjourned until Monday, when the judges would read their verdicts in both cases, he said.

The Australian government has repeatedly asked Indonesia to spare the lives of Sukumaran and Chan. Widodo has refused to budge, ramping up diplomatic tensions between the neighbors.

Lawyers for the two Australians have been trying to convince the court since February that it has the jurisdiction to hear their appeal against the president's rejection of a plea for clemency for the pair.

Judges rejected that argument last month.

"We will respect the judges who are now considering everything before ruling on the case," Leonard Arfan, a lawyer representing the two Australians, told reporters. "We respect the ongoing process and we're just waiting for the decision."

Sukumaran and Chan were arrested in 2005 as the ringleaders in a plot by a group, which came to be known as the Bali Nine, to smuggle heroin out of Indonesia.

At least four other death row inmates have appealed against their sentences.

Indonesia's attorney general has said all 10 prisoners would face the firing squad together but has yet to set a date for their executions.

The group awaiting execution includes citizens of Brazil, France, Ghana, Nigeria, the Philippines and Indonesia.

Vice President Jusuf Kalla told Reuters last month that it could take weeks or even months for the executions to take place.

Indonesia has harsh penalties for drug trafficking and resumed executions in 2013 after a five-year gap.

With the upcoming executions, Indonesia will have exercised the death penalty more times in a single year than ever before.

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Rumored relationship Rainie Yang

Rumored relationship with singer China, Li Ronghao, Rainie Yang had become the butt of Taiwan media last month. This stems from posting photos Li Ronghao which displays both hugged each other tenderly in Li Weibo account (such social media Twitter of China).

Although not long after the image is deleted, the recording screen (screenshot) the picture was already circulating on the internet. Which became the focus of discussion of this photo is because Li Ronghao actually been married secretly and Rainie Yang third person of relationships Li Ronghao.
When confronted about this on his visit to Singapore, a popular actress through the series "Devil Beside You" is admitted if he falls in love with a person, his behavior will be different from most women. He admitted his emotions often capricious in the extreme.
"If most women will be so happy when they were dating and they will love partner with all my heart, I am just the opposite. I often unsteady, confusion between happy and unhappy when they fall in love, "said Rainie who looks a bit dodge rumors that hit him.
According to him, every person has their own style in a relationship, and it will usually be much different with their own personality. He feels everyone can try to change the personality or temperament itself, but it will be difficult to change the style of a person in a relationship.
"I was never ready to talk about my love affair openly. I am accustomed to hide that section to the public. That's why maybe I often feel uneasy. The man who became my boyfriend will definitely find it difficult to perform daily activities in public. For just down the road will be tough! "He explained.

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McLaren MP4-12C

McLaren Automotive (formerly McLaren Cars) is a British high performance automobile manufacturer founded and based in Surrey, England. The company was founded by Ron Dennis in 1989, with the purpose of experimenting with Formula One technology in the production of street ready cars. Now in their 25th of vehicle production, McLaren enjoys a worldwide reputation for excellence. Their high performance vehicles are of extremely high quality, and are renowned for their performance capabilities, especially in terms of speed.

One of their newest models is the MP4-12C. The 12C is one of the only vehicles currently manufactured by McLaren, and it is the first car the company has designed and built independently this century, with the last being the McLaren F1 (which has not been produced since the late 1990s). The 12C began production in 2011 and is still being produced for the foreseeable future, with the 2014 model being one of the premier vehicles of 2014.

The car utilizes a 3.8 liter McLaren M838T Twin Turbo V8, which has a power output of 616 horsepower and 443 torque at 3,000 rpm. The 7 speed dual clutch transmission allows for maximum control over the vehicle, The car’s top speed is 207 miles per hour, making it intimidatingly fast for a street legal vehicle. Its 0-60 time is 3.2 seconds, but this time can be improved to 3 seconds flat if the car is equipped with Corsa tires.

One of the great innovations of the 12C, according to McLaren’s website, is the carbon fiber monocell cockpit. “The design of the MonoCell ensures the 12C performs handles like a race-bred supercar. Carbon fibre does not degrade like metal, so the integrity and racing performance of the MonoCell will be maintained for decades to come.” The entire monocell weighs only 165 pounds, which is consistent with this car’s overall aerodynamic, speed enhancing design.

The 12C’s Brake Steer technology allows for taking turns and difficult angles at maximum speeds while still being somewhat safe. According to McLaren’s website, the Brake Steer takes into account speed and steering angle. Using this information, Brake Steer “works out the perfect cornering trajectory. It then applies the exact amount of braking force required to the rear inside wheel as you corner – allowing the car to effectively pivot around the desired path.”
On top of the car’s incredible performance capabilities and control, the interior is luxurious as well. While it may not be spectacular in terms of roominess, the McLaren MP4-12C is lavish for the one, two or three people who can fit into the vehicle. All of this is going to cost you, of course. The 2014 McLaren MP4-12C has a base price of $239,400, and that is for the coupe. If you go for the convertible option, you are looking at a base price of $265,750.

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Crude oil prices eased in early Asia

Crude oil prices eased in early Asia on Tuesday with investors focused on U.S. industry supply data later in the day as well as the progress of talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear program.

The American Petroleum Institute will release estimates of crude, gasoline and distillate stocks last week later Tuesday, which come ahead of more closely-watched data on the same from the Department of energy on Wednesday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for May delivery fell 0.79% to $48.26 a barrel.

Overnight, crude oil prices slid on Monday as a deadline for a deal regarding Iran's nuclear program neared, exacerbating concerns that a relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil exports could add significantly to the glut in global oil supply.

A late rally in the final minutes of trading on Monday pared previous losses, after a State Department spokesperson said there's a "50-50 chance," an agreement with Iran will be reached by Tuesday. While crude futures gained more than a dollar a barrel just before the close, the last-minute rebound failed to offset an earlier sell-off.

In Lausanne, Switzerland, a bevy of foreign ministers from major world powers met with Iran, reportedly pressing Iranian leaders to budge on the final critical details of a long-awaited agreement. The sides have set a deadline for Tuesday at midnight to reach an agreement on a preliminary outline for a deal aimed at limiting Iran's capabilities enough to keep a nuclear bomb out of reach.

Hampered by heavy economic sanctions over the last three years, Iran has reportedly exported just over a million barrels of crude oil a day since 2012. An easing of sanctions could depress crude prices due to heightening supply.

Iran holds the world's fourth-highest level of crude oil reserves, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a supply level (of 157 billion barrels) that amounts to approximately 10% of total global crude storage. The rigid sanctions, in turn, have boosted Iranian oil supply. Iran reportedly has hoarded 30 million barrels of oil on its fleet of offshore supertankers, Reuters reported last week.

Opec, meanwhile, said in a mid-March report that heavy crude oil prices in Iran increased to $53.26 for the month of February, a spike of more than $10 a barrel from the prior month. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has set a production target of 5.7 million barrels per day of crude oil by 2018, the Tehran Times reported according to official Iranian government statements.

The Iranian prices for crude are slightly below current futures for the international benchmark. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Brent for May delivery fell 0.37% or 0.21 to $56.20 a barrel on Monday.

Global oil supply is approaching record levels in large part due to the Shale boom throughout the United States. In the U.S. oil is being pumped at its fastest rate in more than 30 years.

As a result, U.S. storage capacity has hovered around 60% in recent weeks -- more than doubling from its level of 12 months ago.

If the U.S. reaches storage capacity at some point this summer, there are mounting fears that crude oil could plunge below $30 a barrel. Oil futures are currently down more than 50% from the triple-digit levels reached last July.

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Now Firing In The Eurozone

The ECB lowered its deposit rate for banks below zero last year to -0.1% on June 5 and to -0.2% on September 4. The result has been that banks seem to be starting to lend again. This past Friday, we learned that over the past three months through February, Eurozone loans rose €659.2 billion at an annual rate. Lending to households rose €112 billion at an annual rate, while lending to nonfinancial corporations rose €162 billion. Country data are available with more of a lag for lending, which is most likely picking up especially well in Spain and Italy, while continuing to expand in Germany and France.

In addition, there has been a significant upswing in the growth rates of the monetary aggregates in the Eurozone since early last year. M2 is up 4.0% y/y through February, the best pace since August 2013. Furthermore, in local currency terms, the EMU MSCI stock price index is up 17.8% YTD, besting all the other major MSCI indexes as follows: Japan (10.5%), UK (4.2), All-Country World (4.0), Emerging Markets (2.7), and US (0.5).

The Eurozone is benefitting from near-zero interest rates, QE, a weak euro, rising bank lending, soaring stock prices, and lower oil prices. If these six cylinders don’t revive the region’s economy, then nothing will. Of course, the possibility of a Grexit continues to hang over the Eurozone. However, the strong performance of stocks suggests that investors believe it won’t happen or it won’t matter much if it does. I tend to agree.

Today's Morning Briefing: Split Personality. (1) Catalonia and Provence. (2) Additional autonomy more likely than independence. (3) Busy pace in Spain. (4) Draghi more popular than Rajoy. (5) Bank loans starting to expand in Eurozone. (6) Monetary growth rising too. (7) Lots to fuel better growth in Eurozone. (8) Ups and downs for US economy. (9) Employment indicators are upbeat, while production-related ones are mixed. (10) Tale of four cities in Spain and in US. (11) Fed’s talking heads sending mixed message.



NZD/USD declines after U.S. GDP data



The New Zealand dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, to trade at one-week lows as demand for the greenback remained broadly supported by Friday's upbeat fourth-quarter U.S. growth data and remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

NZD/USD hit 0.7525 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since March 20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7516, sliding 0.65%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7448, the low of March 5 and resistance at 0.7619, the high of March 27.

The greenback remained supported after the Commerce Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and below economists’ forecasts for an upward revision to 2.4%.

Separately, In addition, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a speech on Friday that a rate hike may be warranted later this year, but added that weakening inflation pressures could force the Fed to delay.

Ms. Yellen said policy tightening could "speed up, slow down, pause, or even reverse course" depending on how the economy is performing.

The kiwi was fractionally lower against the Australian dollar, with AUD/NZD edging up 0.08% to 1.0248.

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

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Ready to invest $1 billion in Ukraine if West helps by Soros says

(Princes) - Billionaire financier George Soros is ready to invest $1 billion in Ukraine, if Western countries help private investment there. He also put the odds of Greece leaving the euro at a third, in an interview with Austrian newspaper Der Standard.

Soros has previously urged the West to step up aid to Ukraine, outlining steps towards a $50 billion financing package that he said should be viewed as a bulwark against an increasingly aggressive Russia.

"The West can help Ukraine by increasing attractiveness for investors. A political risk insurance is necessary. This could take the form of mezzanine financing at EU interest rates -- very close to zero," he said in an interview published on Monday.

"I stand ready. There are concrete investment ideas, for example in agriculture and infrastructure projects. I would put in $1 billion. This must generate a profit. My foundation would benefit from this ... Private engagement needs strong political leadership."

The Hungarian-born hedge fund magnate, who made his name betting against the pound in 1992, also put the chance of Greece leaving the euro zone at a third. Last week he put it at 50:50.




Ford revives the Lincoln Continental, aims at U.S. and China


 Ford Motor Co (N:F) will resurrect the Lincoln Continental as its top-of-the line luxury sedan, betting the classic name will help rebuild the brand's image in the United States and China.

Ford's Lincoln will unveil a prototype of the future Continental sedan on Monday ahead of the April 3-12 New York auto show, which will feature many of the Continental's future rivals, including the Cadillac CT6 sedan from General Motors Co (N:GM), a new Jaguar XF sedan from Jaguar Land Rover and a bevy of super-premium models from Daimler AG's (DE:DAIGn) Mercedes Benz.

Ford retired the Continental name in 2002, and joined its rivals in using letter and number codes for most models. But memories lived on in China, where Continentals had been the car of political leaders and celebrities. China now is the main market for premium sedans such as the Audi A6 or A8, the Mercedes S-class or the BMW 7-series.

Ford executives say they were surprised to learn that the Continental name also had legs in the United States, where grandly-proportioned Continentals from the 1960s had prominent cameo roles in movies such as the popular "Matrix" science fiction series.

What clinched it, said Ford Chief Executive Mark Fields, was that early designs for the next large Lincoln sedan "weren't as good as we wanted them to be." About 18 months ago, Fields said he and other senior executives decided to call the car the Continental based on the positive research.

"Immediately, people's eyes lit up," Fields said. The show car debuts a new look for Lincoln, with a grille and stance that lean more toward Jaguar or Maserati than Cadillac or BMW.

When it launches next year, the production Continental will be the latest salvo in a $2.5 billion renovation of Lincoln. In the United States, the brand lags well behind BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Cadillac and Lexus. Lincoln's U.S. sales are up 1.2 percent for the first two months of 2015, lagging the 9.2 percent increase in the overall market.

By 2020, Ford wants to expand Lincoln sales globally to 300,000 vehicles a year, about triple current sales, Fields said.

Ford is in the early stages of relaunching Lincoln in China, with 11 dealerships and 25 planned by the end of 2015. Ford has not announced plans to build Lincoln vehicles there. GM says it plans to build the CT6 in China and at its factory in Hamtramck, Michigan.

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Aston Martin Vanquish

The newest sports car from Aston Martin’s Vanquish series is a beauty to say the least. One of five current models offered by Aston Martin, the Vanquish is a two door sports coupe with an FMR layout. The first generation of the Vanquish was introduced in 2001 and production continued until 2007.

After a five year break and in preparation for Aston Martin’s celebration of its 100th anniversary, the second generation of the Vanquish was introduced in 2012. Now in its third year of production, the second generation of Aston Martin’s Vanquish series is one of 2014’s most critically acclaimed cars, let alone one of the most critically acclaimed cars in Aston Martin’s currently offered models.

With the English company recently celebrating its 100th birthday, and just a couple years after Italian company Investindustrial invested around $250 million (£150 million) in the company, things have been looking up for Aston Martin in the last couple years. 2013 was no exception, and it looks like, with the introduction of the 2014 Vanquish, this year is going to be no different.

With a base price of $282,820, this car is more likely to be a “dream car” than anything else, though if you have a deep enough wallet, the 2014 Aston Martin Vanquish is certainly not a waste of money. According to AutoWeek, the Vanquish boasts an impressive 565 horsepower at 7,750 RPM and 457 ft-lb of torque at 5,500 RPM. A high performing sports car, the Vanquish can go from 0-60 in 4 seconds flat and has a top speed hovering above 200 miles per hour. These stunning performance capabilities are made possible partially by the car’s 6 liter V12 engine 6 speed engine.

The Vanquish is rather heavy, weighing just under two tons. As a result of this, it has an extremely grounded feel and is easy to control, but gets a combined fuel economy of just under 15 miles per gallon. Having said that, a little bit of extra fuel expense is not likely to stop someone willing to drop $300,000 on a vehicle.

Performance alone is not all that you are getting if you invest in a 2014 Aston Martin Vanquish, however. The interior is lavishly luxurious. According to Aston Martin’s website, the design of the car’s interior “combines the widest choice of materials and finishes ever created for a GT. All new ergonomic interior environment groupings and carbon fibre interior finishes. Contrasting seat accent colours and unique hour-glass stitching.”

Overall, the 2014 Aston Martin Vanquish is shaping up to be one of 2014’s most impressive cars, both in terms of technical performance and visual appea

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The atmosphere in the General Cemetery (TPU) Malacca (Funeral Artist Olga Syahputra)

The atmosphere in the General Cemetery (TPU) Malacca, Pondok Kelapa, Saturday (28/03/2015) started an uproar when people shout at Luna Maya who fainted. Things are getting more and not conducive Olga's body inside the coffin corpse removed from the ambulance to the burial grounds. Sea of ​​people who gathered trying to scramble to lift the corpse to the grave coffin.

Similar scenes have occurred when Olga's body was first brought to the funeral home, Krishna Jalan Raya 4, Pondok Kelapa, East Jakarta. Barricades were set up security forces could not stem the enthusiasm of the people who are curious about the corpse Olga. In fact, the line media crews that had been neatly lined up, a sudden irregular when people desperate merangsak entrance to perpetuate the presence of bodies of Olga.

Due to urge action-Push in either place, not a few people who fainted from exhaustion and heat. Not only that, there were several small children were found separated from their parents.

Luna force myself to get in closer break through coffin corpse brought Olga Syahputra, he also tried to approach the coffin. But unfortunately, because of overcrowding, Luna Maya fainted in front of the grave Olga Syahputra and in the midst of the people. Seeing Luna weakened condition, some relatives who was behind the attitude of carrying the limp body Luna.
Although in a state of weakness, Luna still force myself to approach the corpse. He also looks hysterical in front of the casket corpse Olga.

not to mention the manager, Vera Zanobia Sukari or Madame Vera, seen crying.

The female eyes were swollen because of continued crying. Compared with the others, he is beginning to leave the tomb Olga. He walked with a limp penetrate people still thronged the area of ​​the cemetery.

After walking a few steps, Vera pause, then the manager Olga fainted. Some of the people who accompanied him to swiftly carry her. The incident was invited attention some people who were there. They shouted the name Vera.

"Mak Vera ... Well, fainting. Do not pass out, Madame Vera, which doggedly," said one mother.

With the help of several officers who asked people to not clustered, Vera brought into the car.

The body of comedy artist Olga Syahputra (32) is buried in the cemetery of Malacca, East Jakarta on Saturday (28/03/2015) at around 13:00 pm

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Will EUR/USD Hit 1.12 or 1.06?

EUR/USD
(Last Price: 1.0919)
BUY, Entry = 1.0919, SL = 1.0876, TP = 1.1006
if wrong then SELL, Entry = 1.0876, SL = 1.0966, TP = 1.0806

GBP/USD
(Last Price: 1.4928)
SELL, Entry = 1.4930, SL = 1.4970, TP = 1.4890
if wrong then BUY, Entry = 1.4970, SL = 1.4930, TP = 1.5010

USD/JPY
no comment

USD/CHF
(Last Price: 0.9678)
SELL, Entry = 0.9646, SL = 0.9686, TP = 0.9606
if wrong then BUY, Entry = 0.9686, SL = 0.9646, TP = 0.9726

AUD/USD
(Last Price: 0.7861)
BUY, Entry = 0.7894, SL = 0.7854, TP = 0.7934
if wrong then SELL, Entry = 0.7854, SL = 0.7894, TP = 0.7814

GOLD (XAU/USD)
Last Price (1,187.00)
Move (UP) first is higher

To trade in Forex, better to use Trailing Stop 20 points as your TP, and Max Risk < 3%
Important Forex Movement Schedule (time zone: GMT+7 / WIB):
8:15 USD
11:50 AUD
15:00 EUR
15:30 EUR
16:00 EUR
16:30 GBP
19:30 USD
20:45 USD
21:00 USD

    Will EUR/USD Hit 1.12 or 1.06?
    Low Yields Keep Dollar Weak
    AUD Soars Ahead of Chinese Data
    USD/CAD Hits Fresh 5-Year Highs
    NZD Bounces on Stronger Data
    AUD Rallies Ahead of Chinese PMI
    GBP: Export Orders Hit 2-Year Lows

Will EUR/USD Hit 1.12 or 1.06?

Investors continued to sell US dollars on Monday, driving EUR/USD within a whisker of 1.10. After last week’s FOMC meeting, daily trading ranges for many currency pairs expanded significantly and since then currencies have fluctuated within the wider bounds. The euro has been the biggest beneficiary of dollar weakness because short positions have been extremely overstretched and the lack of follow through on the back of the FOMC meeting prompted many EUR/USD traders to unwind their short trades by buying the currency back. No Eurozone data was released Monday but comments from ECB officials on the possibility of QE ending earlier helped to lift the currency. As the EUR/USD bounces off its 12-year lows and closes at the day’s high, many investors are now wondering if EUR/USD has bottomed.

To answer that question, we want to start by saying that the dollar’s rally is far from over. The FOMC statement may not have been as hawkish as some investors anticipated but 15 out of 17 -- or 88% -- of Federal Reserve officials expect the central bank to raise interest rates this year. Tightening by the Fed will come at a time when the European Central Bank is increasing its balance and injecting further stimulus into the Eurozone economy. As long as the foundation of tighter U.S. and looser EZ monetary policy remains, EUR/USD is headed for further losses. So while the euro may break 1.10 against the U.S. dollar and perhaps even test 1.12, we expect a rally to be capped at that level. The downtrend may not resume this week but it will certainly happen in the months to come, which means a move below 1.06 is still a strong target. This week, we have a number of important Eurozone economic reports that could lend support to the euro. This includes Tuesday’s flash PMI reports and Wednesday’s IFO report. Between the weaker euro, lower rates, quantitative easing, the recent improvement in investor confidence (ZEW) and industrial production, the Eurozone economy should start to report more positive surprises. At the same time, however, 12 to 18 months of QE, negative interest rates and ongoing political troubles in Greece will keep the euro on track for parity.

Low Yields Keeps Dollar Weak

The U.S. dollar traded lower against most of the major currencies Monday as profit taking, low yields and a lack of market-moving data discouraged investors from buying dollars. The fact that 10-Year Treasuries are yielding close to 1.9% indicates that investors haven’t returned to their rate-hike bets. Last week Janet Yellen made it clear that a hike anytime after April is possible including the June meeting but that possibility was undermined by downgrades to their economic assessment and forecasts that suggests they will delay tightening to September. Either way, the Fed is poised to raise rates this year and the dollar will push to new highs when a hike nears. In the meantime, we expect choppy consolidation in the majors until next week’s non-farm payrolls report. With only consumer prices, more housing data, durable goods, revisions to Q4 GDP and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report scheduled for release, the focus will be on Fed speak. We heard from two policymakers on Monday – Fischer and Mester. The Vice Chair of the Fed expressed concern about the dollar’s strength and labor market, but felt that a hike before year-end is likely, a view that Mester shares. Bullard, Evans, Lockhart and Yellen are scheduled to speak later this week and the dollar could regain momentum if more policymakers publicly throw their support behind 2015 tightening. The louder the hawks scream, the sooner the dollar will resume its rise. We continue to believe that the dollar is a bargain now and if you don’t buy in the next few days or weeks, you may regret it. With that in mind, one other tactical option would be to wait for the dollar to stabilize and rejoin the move after it starts to rise to ensure that momentum is on your side. Regardless of the strategy, six months from now we expect the dollar to be trading 3% to 5% above current levels.

AUD Soars Ahead of Chinese Data

All three of the commodity currencies traded higher against the U.S. dollar Monday but the strongest gains were seen in the Australian dollar. As no Australian data was released overnight, the move can be largely attributed to positioning. The CFTC data showed that before the FOMC meeting, there was a significant reduction in Australian dollar short positions. Traders started to turn less bearish Aussie and it may have even flipped from net short to longs after the Fed meeting. While the Australian dollar has performed well versus the greenback, euro and British pound, it dropped to a record low versus the New Zealand dollar. Both currencies offer a higher yield than many other major economies but the RBA is still talking about lower rates while the RBNZ has made it clear that rates will remain unchanged for the time being. The decline in dairy prices last week drove the New Zealand dollar lower initially but Fonterra reaffirmed its dairy payout forecast, which helped to revive the rally. Stronger consumer confidence in the first quarter also boosted demand for the currency. There was no data from Australia but steady gold prices and upcoming data have investors turning back to the currency. While economists are looking for a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity, investors are optimistic and looking for stability. If Chinese data surprises to the upside, AUD/USD could hit a 1-month high, but if the report disappoints, the Australian dollar could give up its gains quickly. Finally, the rebound in oil prices drove USD/CAD to 1.25. As we believe that the currency pair will range trade between 1.24 and 1.28 in the coming weeks, USD/CAD is nearing the bottom of this range.

GBP: Export Orders Hit 2-Year Lows

The British pound ended Monday unchanged against the U.S. dollar, making it the day’s worst-performing currency. According to the Confederation of British Industry, industrial trend orders dropped to its lowest level in 2 years. This fueled speculation that the Bank of England will postpone tightening this year as a strong sterling weighs on the economy. This is a busy week for the British pound with inflation data scheduled for release Tuesday and retail sales due on Thursday. We know that the central bank is worried about weak wage growth so it will be interesting to see if it prevented spending from recovering. Inflation is also expected to rebound but unambiguously positive data is needed to take GBP/USD back above 1.50. Aside from concerns about wages, U.K. policymakers also made it clear they are worried about the impact of a strong currency on low inflation. The British pound may have been weak versus the dollar but it has been very strong versus the euro.

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USD Bulls Must Be Patient

Economic indicators out of the U.S over the past few months have surprised to the downside on a number of occasions bringing into question Q1 growth prospects.

As highlighted below we can see there have been 4 months of below expectation expansion on the ISM Manufacturing PMI release. Although we’re yet to see a reading below 50.0 that indicates contraction, we are trending lower and in that direction. This is a genuine reason for concern.

In the midst of falling commodity prices, and specifically oil, it is no real surprise to see inflationary data in the U.S in negative territory. However, this does give the Federal Reserve more flexibility when it comes to the much talked about interest-rate hike. If prices were above the target level deemed acceptable in the Fed’s mandate there would be less of a debate about when the central bank would be tightening monetary policy.

A real concern is that the falling oil prices that were likened to a ‘tax cut’ by U.S officials has not been represented in the U.S Consumer. Retail Sales in 2015 have consistently come out negatively. The worry is that U.S consumers are supposed to have more disposable income as they are saving money at the pump, yet spending by consumers is in decline.

This brings into play the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. There has been a significant drop-off in this sentiment survey since the lofty high of 98.2 in January. The latest report showed a reading of 91.2 in March after 93.6 in Feb. Yes these are positive, again we’re seeing softness.

The real question is how this will impact on U.S growth prospects. A recent report suggests U.S GDP is projecting growth of 1.2% in Q1.

So what does this mean for our market outlook? We have to take into consideration the harsh winter being experienced across the pond, plus the disruption on the West Ports was mentioned no less than 5 times in the “What Respondents are saying” section of the latest ISM Manufacturing report.

If we take into account both the harsh weather conditions and the West Port disruptions are temporary in nature, then we can expect a rebound in U.S economic data as we head into spring and then Q2. The U.S economy still has the benefit of low funding costs and a healthy appetite for lending by U.S banks. This is a good sign for longer-term growth prospects.

Let’s also remember this time last year when another cold winter severely disrupted U.S growth. This resulted in a sell-off in USD throughout Feb and April. EUR/USD rallied from 1.3480 to 1.4000 in this period. However, after the blip in the U.S economy had passed, the market began flooding into USD again.

Currently the circumstances are very similar in terms of longer term fundamental outlook. The divergence in growth and monetary policy remains in place as the ECB embarks on QE whilst the FED considers a rate hike. That said, the noticeable difference this year is the positioning of the market. The softness in data this year come after a monumental USD rally across the board. With the long USD trade overcrowded we would not be surprised to see a more pronounced USD pullback before our longer term bullish dollar bias resumes.

We still favour USD strength across the board, and especially favour the greenback to outperform the AUD as detailed in my previous report.

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Capital Markets In The Week Ahead

The events of the past week will continue to reverberate in the capital markets in the week ahead. The key development was the market’s ultra-dovish read of the Federal Reserve. Although the dollar recouped the lion’s share of the knee-jerk losses, the debt markets have not returned to status quo ante.

Many, if not most, market participants fail to appreciate our heuristic insight into the Federal Reserve: Policy emanates from the leadership of the Federal Reserve: Yellen, Stanley Fischer, and Dudley. We argue that the key organ of the leadership is the FOMC statement. Other communication tools including the dot-plots and the FOMC minutes have a higher ratio of noise to signal.

The FOMC statement dropped the word patience, completing the transition from a date-approach to forward guidance to a data-driven approach. Fearing that the markets would conclude that a hike was imminent, the statement offset the seemingly hawkish development with an acknowledgement that the economic growth had moderated, and exports had slowed. Other than that, the FOMC statement was little changed from January.

Participants emphasized the dot-plots and in particular, the dramatic reduction in the anticipated path of the Fed funds target. We want to emphasize three points here. First, our understanding is that many Fed officials see the dot-plots as a largely failed experiment and would like to jettison them. However, this is easier said than done. Yellen herself has played down their importance.

Second, the past dot-plots exposed a large gap between them and market expectations reflected in OIS, Fed funds futures, and Eurodollar futures. It remained an open question how that gap was going to close. The evolution of the dot-plots last week showed Fed officials adjusted their views dramatically and brought them more in line with the market's expectations. The previous configuration of dot plots did not persuade the market of a hawkish tilt. We suspect that markets exaggerated the dovish signal in the dot plots.

Third, Yellen reiterated that the dot-plots are a function of individual forecasts. Of the skills necessary to become a regional Fed president, a robust ability to forecast the economy is not particularly salient. In December, there were a couple of regional Fed presidents that anticipated (i.e. wanted) the Fed to hike rates in March-April.

What has been lost on many observers is the change in personnel. Charles Plosser, the outspoken hawk who led the Philadelphia Fed, retired on March 1. His successor, Patrick Harker, a director of the Philadelphia Fed for the past three years, will assume the post as of July 1. He is perceived to be somewhat less hawkish and more in line with the Fed's leadership. At the March FOMC meeting (and at the June meeting as well) First Vice President D. Blake Prichard will temporarily take on the duties.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, another outspoken hawk, stepped down after last week's FOMC meeting. His successor has not been named. The First Vice President of the Dallas Fed, Helen Holcomb will serve in the interim until a successor is named. Previously Plosser and Fisher had advocated a hike in March/April. This is obviously not going to happen, and the forecasts had to be adjusted accordingly.

The fact that Q1 growth is tracking much lower than officials expected requires an adjustment to the forecasts for the entire year. This was the case last year as well after it become clear that the economy contracted in Q1. Yellen took great pains to stress that even with the downgrade of the Fed’s growth forecasts, it continues to expect growth to be above trend.

There is also much confusion about the Fed’s view of the dollar. Contrary to what some had expected, there was no mention of the dollar in the FOMC statement itself. Most of Yellen’s remarks about the dollar during the press conference were not instigated by the Chair, but by inquiring reporters, many of whom later wrote stories about the increased importance of the dollar in setting Fed policy.

Yellen accepted that the rise in the dollar was one of the factors that was slowing exports. Reporters did not press further: If the dollar was one of the factors, what were the others? If they had, we suspect Yellen would have explained that the IMF and World Bank had cut their forecasts for world growth. We think that the data bears out our contention that the best thing for US exports is stronger world growth.

Yellen also noted that the strength of the dollar was dampening inflation through import prices. Many participants completely ignored the rest of her comments about this, and in particular that this was a transitory development. Few reports covering the Fed thought it worth mentioning that Yellen acknowledged that the dollar’s appreciation was partly a reflection of the strength of the US economy.

We suggest that Yellen’s testimony before Congress in late February sheds light on Fed’s thinking. She indicated that the dampening impact of the rise of the dollar is broadly offset by the fall in oil prices. The claim that Yellen has waded into the so-called currencies wars is far from the mark. Indeed, we expect that the dollar will be stronger, not weaker, when the Fed raises interest rates. Vice Chairman Fischer’s speech to the Economics Club in New York on March 23 should be closely monitored. He is the first of the Fed’s leadership to speak since the FOMC meeting.

The US economy contracted in Q1 '14, and yet the Fed continued to taper. It stayed on course. Similarly, Q1 '15 growth is set to be disappointingly weak. Part of this is weather-related. Part of this is a function of the labor dispute in the West Coast ports. US consumption surged in Q4 (more than 4% annualized rate) and appeared to be pulling back in Q1.

We anticipate better economic data will be forthcoming in the months ahead. Next week’s economic data may be constructive (a tick up in CPI, an upward revision in Q4 GDP), but pales in comparison to the employment data in early April. In this context, we find Yellen’s comment, which was obscured by the doves' cry that rates are likely to rise before earnings growth accelerates, is particularly significant.

The modest uptick in euro area activity and in lending conditions we identified prior to the launch of the ECB’s sovereign bond buying program remains intact. The flash PMI and money supply reports will likely confirm this. The composite is expected to edge up from February 53.3 reading. Eurozone data has consistently surprised the market here in Q1, and we expect market expectations are being adjusted. Growth here in Q1 is likely 1.5%-1.75% at an annualized rate.

Financial conditions are also improving. Money supply growth is accelerating. Last February it was rising at an anemic 1.3% year-over-year pace. When reported on 26 March, the pace likely have accelerated to 4.3% from 4.1% in January (best in six years). Moreover, and with implications for the Targeted Long-Term Repo Operation (TLTRO), private sector lending is improving. After contracting for 2 ½ years, lending posted positive readings in December and January, and will likely extend for a third month.

Core banks appeared to participate more in the first two opportunities to tap the TLTRO facility last September (82.6 bln euros) and December (130 bln euros). However, banks in the periphery seemed to be more active participants in last week’s operation. Italian banks were thought to have taken down nearly a third of the 97.8 bln euros borrowed under the TLTRO offering. The overall take-down was at the high end of expectations.

There were two elections in the eurozone this weekend that may not have much immediate market impact, but will feed investors' anxiety about the political outlook. Spain's Andalusia holds a regional election. It is a stronghold for the Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) but Podemos can deny it an outright majority. France holds the first round of local elections and a strong showing by the National Front is expected. It has a candidate running in nearly every constituency, more than the main two parties (UMP and Socialists). The results will be known before the markets open on Monday.

The UK reports February inflation and retail sales. The year-over-year CPI is expected to fall closer to zero. The low CPI reading will follow the disappointing average earnings data and will reinforce the dovish tone of BOE Governor Carney and BOE Economist Haldine. The implied yield of the June 2016 short-sterling futures contract has fallen by more than 30 bp in the past two weeks to 90 bp as the pendulum of investor expectations pushes out a UK rate hike further. A constructive retail sales report (consensus forecast 0.4% after -0.3% in January) is unlikely to reverse this recent development.

There is a full slate of economic reports from Japan. These includes the preliminary March PMI, February unemployment, CPI and retail sales. On balance, the weak economic recovery that began in Q4 '14 is carrying over into the start of this year. Of note, several of the large auto companies are raising base wages and this will likely underpin overall household spending going forward. Retail sales are also expected to have recovered from the 1.9% decline in January (consensus forecast is for a 0.9% increase in February.

However, despite the aggressive easing of Japanese monetary policy, price pressures have not been rekindled. The core rate, which excludes fresh food, is expected to ease to 2.1% from 2.2%. When last April’s sales tax is excluded, as the BOJ does for its target, consumer prices are essentially flat on a year-over-year basis. The BOJ's Kuroda recently warned the market that CPI may be around zero for the next few months. He seems in no immediate hurry to expand the BOJ’s asset purchase.

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